大越期货原油早报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term negative impacts on the oil market have been exhausted, and the geopolitical positive factors are not obvious. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of oversupply. The SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see. [3][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The US and Ukraine held talks on a peace agreement with Russia, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a capacity assessment mechanism. Saudi Arabia may cut January crude prices for Asian buyers. The overall situation is neutral. [3] - Basis: On November 28, the spot prices of Oman and Qatar Marine crude oil were $64.62/barrel and $63.73/barrel respectively, with a basis of 38.48 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [3] - Inventory: The US API crude inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21, while the EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.055 million barrels). Cushing area inventory decreased by 6,800 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of November 28, which is bullish. [3] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. [3] - Main positions: As of October 14, WTI crude oil main positions were long, with a decrease in long positions. As of November 25, Brent crude oil main positions were long, also with a decrease in long positions, which is bearish. [3] - Expectation: There was no significant progress in the US - Russia peace talks. The US increased pressure on Venezuela, raising geopolitical concerns. The OPEC+ meeting continued the previous resolution, and the short - term impact on oil prices is weak. The market is focusing on geopolitical conflicts. Military action against Venezuela may boost oil prices in the short term. [3] 3.2 Recent News - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. Eight OPEC+ countries will suspend production increases in January - March 2026 due to seasonal reasons. [5] - US President Trump tried to negotiate with Venezuelan President Maduro, but the negotiation failed. Trump announced the closure of Venezuela's airspace, and the US military is on standby. Military action may start soon. [5] - US and Ukrainian officials held talks on a peace agreement with Russia, claiming the talks were productive, and the US Secretary of State is optimistic about the progress. [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Sanctions on Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. [6] - Bearish factors: The situation in the Middle East is easing, institutions have a consistent expectation of oil oversupply, and there may be a new meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia. [6] - Market driver: Short - term negative impacts are exhausted, geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent crude oil rose by 0.74 to $62.54 (a 1.20% increase), WTI crude oil rose by 0.70 to $58.65 (a 1.21% increase), SC crude oil fell by 4.60 to 442.8 (a 1.03% decrease), and Oman crude oil fell by 0.47 to $62.82 (a 0.74% decrease). [7] - Spot market: The prices of various crude oils also changed. For example, UK Brent Dtd rose by 0.39 to $63.56 (a 0.62% increase), and WTI rose by 0.70 to $58.65 (a 1.21% increase). [9] - Inventory data: API and EIA inventory data showed different trends. API inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21, while EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the same period. [3][10][13] 3.5 Position Data - WTI and Brent crude oil main positions have shown a decrease in long positions recently. For example, as of November 25, Brent crude oil main positions decreased by 57,430 to 120,934. [3][18][19]