Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but considering the large floating storage, it is expected to return to a state of inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the end - state of the 01 contract will still be high inventory. It is advisable to take advantage of high prices to conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread operation [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price differentials fluctuate, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance operations in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has recently decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Against the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a moderately excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance operations, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, the near - end export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the动力煤期货price remained at 801. The prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, and CFR东南亚 showed various changes. For example, the江苏 spot price increased from 2053 to 2100, and the CFR China price increased from 237 to 247 [1]. - Inventory and Market Situation: Iranian plants have shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland. The basis has strengthened slightly, and port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there is a large amount of floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the东北亚乙烯price remained at 730 on some days. The prices of华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 showed fluctuations. For example, the华北LL price decreased from 6760 to 6680 and then increased to 6720 [6]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the山东丙烯price changed from 5900 to 6000, and the东北亚丙烯price remained at 695 on some days. The prices of华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, and PP美湾 also showed fluctuations. For example, the华东PP price decreased from 6285 to 6205 and then increased to 6270 [6]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable [6]. PVC - Price Data: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the西北电石price increased from 2450 to 2500, and the山东烧碱price remained at 777 on some days. The prices of电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价, and出口利润 also showed changes. For example, the电石 - based PVC price in East China increased from 4530 to 4560 [6]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports [6].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251201
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-01 02:29