大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices rebounded, with manufacturers being somewhat reluctant to sell and traders remaining cautious in purchasing. Recently, some production capacities have been cut, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, and shipping fees remain flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. Nickel iron prices show signs of stabilizing, with most remaining steady and a small portion still falling, and the cost - line center remains stable. Stainless steel inventories are rising, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventories are continuously at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will be under downward pressure from the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy - Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint: Nickel prices rebounded this week, manufacturers were reluctant to sell, and traders were cautious. Some production capacity cuts led to supply shortages. The industrial chain shows firm nickel ore prices, stable shipping fees, expected loose supply in Indonesia, stabilizing nickel iron prices, rising stainless steel inventories, high refined nickel inventories, and limited demand boost from new energy vehicles [8]. - Operation Strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract of stainless steel will be under downward pressure from the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [9][10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices remained stable, with no change in the prices of red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% compared to last week. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 3.43%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged. The prices of low - nickel iron and high - nickel iron in Shandong remained the same as last week. The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased, while the price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices were stable, and shipping fees were flat. As of November 28, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.8733 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous period. In October 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 23.41% month - on - month and increased by 10.97% year - on - year. The Philippines' ore output was smooth this week, downstream nickel enterprises had the expectation of production cuts, and the price of Indonesian ore decreased slightly [17] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices rebounded, and manufacturers were reluctant to sell. In the long - term, the supply and demand of electrolytic nickel will continue to increase, but the oversupply pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary batteries in the new energy industry chain is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down. In October 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import and export volumes of refined nickel also changed. The LME and Shanghai nickel inventories increased [22][26][30] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices stopped falling and remained flat. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron production increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The import volume of nickel iron decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory of nickel iron in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 nickel tons [42][47] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. In October, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, and the inventory increased. The import volume of stainless steel was 124,100 tons, and the export volume was 358,100 tons [59][63] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the production and sales of power and other batteries increased, and the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to October also increased [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rebounded and returned to the vicinity of the 20 - day moving average, being suppressed by the moving average. The positions decreased significantly, and short - selling funds took profits. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross, with a certain upward possibility but limited upside space [80]