大越期货白糖早报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The domestic sugar market shows a situation where consumption is good, and the tariff on syrups has increased. However, the increase in global sugar production and the opening of the import profit window due to the decline in foreign sugar prices pose negative impacts. The foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited follow - up increases. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with a short - term technical rebound possible but with limited strength, mainly in a low - level sideways consolidation [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. In the 24/25 season by the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrups and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5610, with a basis of 283 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has limited follow - up increases. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the strength may be limited, mainly in a low - level sideways consolidation [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply and Demand in 25/26 Season: Different institutions have different forecasts. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 million tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons [34]. - Domestic Sugar Production and Sales in 24/25 Season: By the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [4]. - Domestic Sugar Import in October 2025: China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrups and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - Domestic Sugar Market Data: The national reserve inventory is about 700 million tons, the import quota is 194.5 million tons. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 5700. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing [9]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.