棉花周报（11.24-11.28）-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate upwards, reaching a short - term rebound high. The short - term trend of futures is an upward fluctuation. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, trading is shifting to the 05 contract [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day Review and This Week's Review - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate upwards, reaching a short - term rebound high. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.62 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [5]. 2. Daily Prompt - Positive factors: The purchase price of seed cotton has risen slightly, commercial inventory has decreased year - on - year, and export tariffs to the US have been reduced by 10% compared to the previous period. Negative factors: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons [13][14]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [16]. - China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.45 million tons [17]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.