白糖周报（11.24-11.28）-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices stopped falling and rebounded, with near - month contracts rebounding stronger than far - month contracts, maintaining a low - level weak oscillation. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 period, ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data showed certain changes. The external sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic sugar's follow - up increase is limited. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be weak, and the market will mainly consolidate at a low level [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors include increased global sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new year, and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in external sugar prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - The report provides information on sugar futures prices, spot prices, spreads, and inventory. For example, the SR2601 contract price is 5400, the SR2605 contract price is 5327, and the SR2609 contract price is 5343. The national reserve sugar inventory is about 7 million tons, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Bullish factors: There is a medium - to - long - term supply - demand gap in the domestic sugar market, but the gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700 yuan/ton. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. The modification of the cola formula is long - term bullish for sugar. DATAGRO has lowered the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 period from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons [8]. - Bearish factors: Multiple institutions predict a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 period, such as ISO predicting a surplus of 1.63 million tons, StoneX predicting a surplus of 2.77 million tons, and Czarnikow increasing the expected surplus to 7.4 million tons. Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 period. ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in November 2025; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons in September 2025; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 6.2 million tons in August 2025 and later increases it to 7.4 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons in August 2025; and ISO's early prediction in August 2025 was a shortage of 230,000 tons [33]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 24/25 - 25/26 periods, China's sugar production, consumption, import, and other data have changed. The sugar production in the 25/26 period (November forecast) is expected to reach 11.7 million tons, the consumption is 15.7 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [35]. - Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents/pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5086 yuan/ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [40]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.