大越期货菜粕早报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern. The current situation is neutral. The basis is positive, the inventory is at a low level and decreasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions are decreasing, and the market is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations rumors [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term export and domestic supply expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Multi - empty Concerns - Positive factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Negative factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 20th to 28th, the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3000 - 3100, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2600. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian fluctuated between 2510 - 2570. The rapeseed meal futures price also fluctuated. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%. The import of rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also low. The rapeseed processing volume in oil mills remains at zero [9][13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations rumors, and will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [9].