大越期货豆粕早报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For Soybean Meal (M2601): The price is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. The short - term trend is influenced by the US soybean market. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean price, uncertainties remain in the purchase volume and the US soybean harvest weather. Domestically, the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans and the current situation of demand and inventory lead to a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - For Soybeans (A2601): The price is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The short - term trend is affected by the US soybean market, the cost of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans. The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price, while the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing the price [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - Bearish Factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The harvest area, output, and other data of soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing the overall supply - demand situation of global soybeans during this period [33]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The harvest area, output, import volume, and other data of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are provided, reflecting the domestic supply - demand situation [34]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 are detailed, including the planting rate, harvest rate, and comparison with previous years and the five - year average [35][36][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report: The planting area, yield, output, and other data of soybeans in the US in the past six months are shown, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [46]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Volume: The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 to 2025 is presented, indicating that the arrival volume decreased from the high level in November 2025, but the overall year - on - year increase [49]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content