集运早报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2512 contract is approaching the delivery logic, with P1 expected to be around 1,550 - 1,600 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin positions. The market anticipates a stable - with - increase trend, observing the shipping companies' price increase announcements and implementation [3]. - The EC2602 contract is undervalued. The key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo - induced full - capacity utilization during the off - season. Despite high shipping capacity, the outlook isn't overly pessimistic due to the late Chinese New Year, strong cargo volume on the European route this year, and the fact that price cuts in December for inventory stocking are beneficial for the implementation of price increases in January. If the peak - season rush is gradually realized, EC2602 may have greater upside potential [3]. - For the EC2604 contract, it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices of various EC contracts on the previous day are as follows: EC2512 at 1,631.1 with a 1.15% increase; EC2602 at 1,631.1 with a 6.07% increase; EC2604 at 1,471.9 with a 1.67% increase; EC2606 at 1,215.2 with a 2.11% increase; EC2608 at 1,339.0 with a 2.15% increase; EC2610 at 1,021.0 with a 0.87% increase [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The previous day's trading volumes were 1,737 for EC2512 and 4,146 for EC2602, etc. The previous day's open interests were 4,501 for EC2512 and 40,111 for EC2602, etc., with corresponding changes in open interest [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spreads of different contract combinations (e.g., EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, etc.) and their day - on - day and week - on - week changes are provided. For example, the EC2512 - 2504 spread was 558.0, with a day - on - day change of 0.6 and a week - on - week change of - 53.8 [2]. Shipping Index Data - SCFI (European Route): As of November 24, 2025, the index was 1,639.37 points, a 20.75% increase from the previous period and a 2.71% increase from two periods ago [2]. - CCFI: As of November 28, 2025, the index was 1,449.34 points, a 1.14% increase from the previous period and a 2.09% increase from two periods ago [2]. - NCFI: As of November 28, 2025, the index was 1,024.64 points, a 7.67% increase from the previous period and a - 2.83% change from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Route Spot Situation - In early December, the price increase announcement failed. The average price in Week 49 was $2,360, equivalent to 1,650 points on the futures market. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to $2,200, setting the tone, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is $2,270, equivalent to 1,580 points on the futures market. MSC is calling for a price increase to $3,500 for the second - half of December cabin positions, and ONE to $2,800. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin positions in early December [4]. Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the agreement. On November 29, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the assassination of a senior commander [5].