广发期货《有色》日报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][4][7][10][12][15][16][17][19] 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks. Monitor macro changes and supply - side recovery [1] Nickel Industry - Macro sentiment has slightly improved. Short - term upstream production cuts and valuation provide some support, but the upward drive is limited. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price will decline next month, and fundamental pressure restricts the upside space of prices. Expect the market to trade in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3] Stainless Steel Industry - Policy - driven changes are difficult to have a direct impact in the short term. Fundamentals show limited improvement, cost support is weakening, demand is sluggish, and inventory reduction is difficult. The market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700. Follow the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4] Lithium Industry - The lithium carbonate futures market is in a wide - range shock, and market divergence is increasing. The main contract is expected to remain in a wide - range shock in the short term, with larger intraday fluctuations. Pay attention to the sustainability of demand improvement during the year - end off - season [7] Zinc Industry - As the TC declines and the export space opens up, the supply pressure eases. The downside space of short - term prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to trade in a range. Monitor the TC inflection point, refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [10] Copper Industry - In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract support at 86,000 - 87,000 [12] Aluminum Industry - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with the main contract reference range of 2,650 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract reference range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton. Monitor the latest trends in the Fed's monetary policy and the sustainability of domestic inventory reduction [15] Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by costs and demand. Short - term prices remain strong, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction [16] Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial silicon price is expected to remain in a low - range shock, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the downstream start - up changes and the impact of the inflow of cancelled warehouse receipts into the spot market [17] Polysilicon Industry - In December, the polysilicon market is expected to have oversupply and inventory accumulation. Futures trading should be on hold, and put options can be bought when volatility is low [19] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 300,000 yuan/ton (-0.60%), and LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 2.50%. The import loss improved slightly [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2603 - 2604 decreased, while those of 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603 increased [1] - Fundamentals: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average smelting start - up rate increased, while refined tin imports and exports decreased [1] - Inventory: SHEF, social, and LME inventories all increased [1] Nickel Industry - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.42%, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.15% [3] - Electrowinning Nickel Costs: The costs of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods decreased, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [3] - New Energy Material Prices: Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 0.32%, and battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.95% [3] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2603 - 2604 increased, and that of 2602 - 2603 decreased [3] - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Chinese refined nickel production increased slightly, imports decreased significantly, and SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded - area inventories decreased [3] Stainless Steel Industry - Prices and Basis: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable or slightly decreased, and the spot - futures spread increased by 9.78% [4] - Raw Material Prices: Most raw material prices were stable, and the 8 - 12% high - grade nickel - iron price decreased slightly [4] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2602 - 2603 decreased, and those of 2603 - 2604 increased [4] - Fundamentals: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, imports increased, exports decreased, and social inventories increased [4] Lithium Industry - Prices and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.48%, and lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 2.13% [7] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 decreased, and those of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603 increased [7] - Fundamentals: In November, lithium carbonate production increased, and in October, demand, imports, and exports increased [7] - Inventory: In October, total and downstream lithium carbonate inventories decreased, and smelter inventories decreased slightly [7] Zinc Industry - Prices and Spreads: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.36%, and the import loss improved [10] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 decreased, and those of 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604 increased [10] - Fundamentals: In November, refined zinc production decreased, in October, imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. The start - up rates of primary processing industries were basically stable [10] - Inventory: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [10] Copper Industry - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.36%, and the refined - scrap copper spread increased by 13.03% [12] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602 increased, and that of 2602 - 2603 decreased [12] - Fundamentals: In October, electrolytic copper production and imports decreased. The start - up rates of copper rod production decreased [12] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased, and LME and COMEX inventories increased [12] Aluminum Industry - Prices and Spreads: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased slightly, and the import loss improved [15] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604 increased [15] - Fundamentals: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and in October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased slightly and exports decreased [15] - Inventory: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased, and LME inventory decreased slightly [15] Aluminum Alloy Industry - Prices and Spreads: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices were stable, and most refined - scrap spreads decreased [16] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602 decreased, and that of 2602 - 2603 increased [16] - Fundamentals: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy production decreased, and primary aluminum alloy production increased. The start - up rates of regenerated aluminum alloy decreased, and that of primary aluminum alloy increased [16] - Inventory: Regenerated aluminum alloy social and daily inventories decreased [16] Industrial Silicon Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: Most industrial silicon spot prices were stable, and the basis of some varieties decreased [17] - Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 increased, and those of 2603 - 2604, 2604 - 2605 changed significantly [17] - Fundamentals: National industrial silicon production decreased, especially in Yunnan and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC production increased, and polysilicon production decreased [17] - Inventory: Xinjiang factory inventory increased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [17] Polysilicon Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, and the N - type material basis decreased [19] - Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads: The main futures contract price increased by 2.15%, and the spreads of different contracts changed [19] - Fundamentals: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased slightly, and exports decreased. Silicon wafer production and demand decreased [19] - Inventory: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased significantly [19]