大越期货沥青期货早报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 29.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 3.056 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 10.5658%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 474.97 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,102.9986 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected that the cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - Market Outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,969 - 3,023 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The supply pressure is high. The planned output of local refineries in November 2025 increased, and the capacity utilization rate and output of sample enterprises increased this week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand is weak, and the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The asphalt processing loss increased, but the strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support [7]. - Other Factors: The basis is neutral; the inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, which is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased slightly, and the inventory of various types decreased, including a 2.51% month - on - month decrease in social inventory, a 9.50% month - on - month decrease in factory inventory, and a 28.75% month - on - month decrease in port diluted asphalt inventory [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: Displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: Presents the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is important for understanding the refining profit margins [29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: Shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: Displays the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: Shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is crucial for refineries' production decisions [41][42]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: Presents the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the market supply situation [44][45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt production [46][47]. - Production Volume: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall supply capacity [50]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: Shows the historical trends of the price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025, which affects the cost and supply of asphalt raw materials [53][55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: Presents the historical monthly production volumes of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [56][57]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: Displays the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply capacity [59][60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: Shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation of asphalt production from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the supply interruption [63]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: Presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the market supply and demand balance [66][67]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: Shows the historical trends of social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025, reflecting the inventory levels in different sectors [70]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [73]. - Import and Export Analysis: - Export and Import Trends: Presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the international market demand and supply [76][77]. - Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread Trend: Shows the historical trends of the import price spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is important for import cost analysis [80][81]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: Displays the historical monthly production volumes of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [82][83]. - Apparent Consumption: Presents the historical monthly apparent consumption volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall market demand [85][86]. - Downstream Demand: - Infrastructure - Related Demand: Shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [88][90]. - Mechanical Equipment Demand: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in construction projects [92][95]. - Asphalt开工率: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: Presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activity in the heavy - traffic asphalt sector [97][98]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: Shows the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand structure of different types of asphalt [101]. - Downstream开工率: Displays the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [103][106]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: - The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [108][109].