广发期货《农产品》日报-20251201

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil production increased in November, and the market expects inventory growth to pressure the futures. There is a risk of a downward break in domestic palm oil futures. It is necessary to closely monitor whether the domestic palm oil futures can effectively stand above 8,600 points [1]. - Soybean oil: The market doubts China's ability to purchase 850 million tons of soybeans this year. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient but demand is limited. However, international oils still have some upward momentum, and it is expected that CBOT soybean oil will likely drive up the domestic oils market after the opening. Currently, the import cost of domestic soybeans remains high, and the spot basis quotation will have limited fluctuations in the short term [1]. Sugar - International sugar: The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil by the end of October has exceeded 38 million tons, and the production forecast for this season is between 40.1 - 40.8 million tons. The price of hydrous ethanol converted to sugar is above 16 cents per pound, and the low sugar - making ratio is expected to be maintained. The futures market for raw sugar lacks new negative factors, and the price is consolidating and bottoming out, expected to remain firm in the short term [3][4]. - Domestic sugar: The new sugar in Guangxi has entered the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar are affected to some extent, their prices are relatively firm. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [4]. Cotton - Internationally, the USDA's cotton export sales in October were stable, and Chinese buyers have gradually resumed purchases but in limited quantities. The cotton harvest in the US is nearly 80% complete, and the quality of new cotton has improved. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton still faces hedging pressure when rising, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand from textile enterprises for spot cotton is weak, but pre - sales are being delivered, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The basis of spot sales is firm, and there is strong support below Zhengzhou cotton. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger within a range [7]. Eggs - The number of newly - laid hens remains low, and the number of old hens being slaughtered has increased significantly. As a result, the inventory of laying hens is on a downward trend, and production capacity is contracting. The suitable storage weather has enhanced the inventory - holding capacity of each link, and the market supply pressure has been alleviated. With the approaching of "Double 12", promotions by e - commerce platforms and supermarkets are expected to stimulate terminal consumption, mainly for small and medium - sized eggs. Food enterprises also show an intention to stock up at low prices. Under multiple factors, the market demand is expected to improve slightly next week. Egg prices have reached a phased low, and downstream replenishment has increased, so there is a possibility of a slight rebound in egg prices [9]. Meal - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. The fixed - price increases with the market, and the basis slightly declines. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious about replenishing inventory, and the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans and the situation of state - reserve auctions. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [12]. Pigs - The market supply is accelerating, and the slaughter is smooth. Although the curing of meat in the southwest region has started, the market demand support is limited, the price of large pigs is weak, and the spot market performs poorly. Pig prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The Ministry of Agriculture announced that the number of fertile sows in October decreased to 39.9 million heads, and the logic of production capacity reduction is still being traded in the futures market. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held. Each contract shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, but the short - term suppression of the spot market remains, and its sustainability needs to be monitored [15]. Corn - In the northeast region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and with the need for port replenishment due to low inventory and the support of state - reserve purchases, the price remains firm. In the north - central region, the grain sales are adjusted according to the price, but due to the shortage of high - quality grain and transportation difficulties, the price oscillates with limited fluctuations. Overall, the short - term supply of corn is tight, but the current grain - selling progress is slow, with about 70% of the grain yet to be sold, and there is selling pressure before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, traders are cautious about building inventories, deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish, and feed enterprises mainly maintain a safety inventory and purchase as needed. In the short term, the futures price remains firm due to the supply - demand mismatch, but the price increase is limited due to the unsolved supply pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in the rhythm of corn supply. If the selling pressure materializes as expected, the price may be under pressure [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: From November 26th to 27th, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased from 8,560 to 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.18%. The futures price of Y2601 decreased from 8,224 to 8,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The basis decreased from 336 to 310, a decrease of 26 or 8.39%. The spot basis quotation decreased by 10. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 14,532 to 22,029, a decrease of 7,497 or 34.03% [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased from 8,290 to 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.21%. The futures price of P2601 increased from 8,440 to 8,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan/ton or 1.04%. The basis increased from - 150 to - 138, an increase of 12 or 8.00%. The spot basis quotation remained unchanged. The import cost on the disk increased by 20 yuan/ton or 0.22%, and the import profit on the disk increased by 68 yuan/ton or 12.72%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 380 [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 10,110 yuan/ton. The futures price of OI601 decreased from 9,810 to 9,772 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton or 0.48%. The basis increased from 291 to 338, an increase of 47 or 16.15%. The spot basis quotation decreased by 50. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - Spread Changes: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) increased from 200 to 222, an increase of 22 or 11.00%. The palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) decreased from - 58 to - 62, a decrease of 4 or 6.90%. The rapeseed oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) decreased from 279 to 233, a decrease of 46 or 16.49%. The soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 170, and the 2601 contract's soybean - palm oil spread decreased from - 548 to - 588, a decrease of 40 or 7.30%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased from 1,650 to 1,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 or 6.06%, and the 2601 contract's rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased from 1,660 to 1,548 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121 or 7.25% [1]. Sugar - Futures Market: The price of the sugar 2601 contract decreased from 5,403 to 5,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.06%. The price of the 2605 contract increased from 5,325 to 5,327 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract increased from 15.12 to 15.21 cents per pound, an increase of 0.09 cents per pound or 0.60%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from 78 to 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 6.41%. The number of positions in the main contract decreased from 377,132 to 361,517, a decrease of 15,812 or 4.14%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 75 to 0, a decrease of 75 or 100.00%. The number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183 [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 5,450 and 5,440 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanning basis decreased from 125 to 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 1.60%. The Kunming basis decreased from 115 to 113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 1.74%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota increased from 4,114 to 4,157 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota increased from 5,214 to 5,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 1.09%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning increased from - 1,336 to - 1,293 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning increased from - 236 to - 179 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 24.15% [3]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production increased from 996.32 to 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales increased from 960.00 to 1,048.00 million tons, an increase of 88.00 million tons or 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased from 618.14 to 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons or 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased from 45.34 to 26.66 million tons, a decrease of 18.68 million tons or - 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased from 96.41% to 93.90%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points or - 2.60%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased from 89.60% to 93.90%, an increase of 4.30 percentage points or 4.80%. The national industrial inventory decreased from 116.00 to 68.21 million tons, a decrease of 47.79 million tons or - 41.20%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi increased from 27.14 to 44.21 million tons, an increase of 17.07 million tons or 62.90%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan increased from 26.58 to 33.65 million tons, an increase of 7.07 million tons or 26.60%. Sugar imports increased from 40.00 to 55.00 million tons, an increase of 15.00 million tons or 37.50% [3]. Cotton - Futures Market: The price of the cotton 2605 contract increased from 13,605 to 13,685 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton or 0.59%. The price of the 2601 contract increased from 13,640 to 13,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The price of the ICE US cotton main contract increased from 64.61 to 64.73 cents per pound, an increase of 0.12 cents per pound or 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased from - 35 to - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 14.29%. The number of positions in the main contract increased from 530,074 to 545,268, an increase of 15,194 or 2.87%. The number of warehouse receipts increased from 2,382 to 2,408, an increase of 26 or 1.09%. The number of valid forecasts increased from 1,697 to 1,884, an increase of 187 or 11.02% [7]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased from 14,716 to 14,723 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton or 0.05%. The CC Index of 3128B cotton increased from 14,891 to 14,896 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The FC Index of M: 1% remained unchanged at 12,935 yuan/ton. The price difference between 3128B and the 01 contract decreased from 1,111 to 1,038 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 6.57%. The price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract decreased from 1,076 to 998 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton or 7.25%. The price difference between the CC Index of 3128B and the FC Index of M: 1% increased from 1,956 to 1,961 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.26% [7]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory increased from 293.06 to 363.97 million tons, an increase of 70.91 million tons or 24.2%. The industrial inventory increased from 88.82 to 93.14 million tons, an increase of 4.32 million tons or 4.9%. The import volume decreased from 10.00 to 9.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.00 million tons or - 10.0%. The bonded area inventory increased from 31.10 to 32.80 million tons, an increase of 1.70 million tons or 5.5%. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased from 0.30 to 0.10, a decrease of 0.20 or - 66.7%. The inventory days of yarn increased from 26.12 to 26.35 days, an increase of 0.23 days or 0.9%. The inventory days of grey cloth decreased from 31.97 to 31.12 days, a decrease of 0.85 days or - 2.7%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased from 43.60 to 53.46 million tons, an increase of 9.86 million tons or 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s increased from - 1,720.10 to - 1,645.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.50 yuan/ton or 4.3%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased from 123.05 to 147.08 billion yuan, an increase of 24.03 billion yuan or 19.5%. The year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased from 4.70% to 6.30%, an increase of 1.60 percentage points or 34.0%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased from 119.67 to 112.58 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7.08 billion