广发期货《黑色》日报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Steel: The demand for five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, improving compared to October, but the overall demand intensity in November is weaker than the same period last year. Due to significant production cuts, the supply - demand gap for rebar is favorable with good de - stocking. However, for hot - rolled coils, production cuts are limited, with supply and demand basically balanced and slow de - stocking of high inventories. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the January contract is expected to converge. Considering the seasonal weakening of future demand and high plate inventories, the upward price drive is not obvious, but production cuts support steel prices, so prices are expected to fluctuate. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. The basis of rebar will strengthen, while that of hot - rolled coils is weak, and the spread between them will continue to converge. There is an arbitrage opportunity of going long on rebar and short on iron ore for the January contract [2]. - Iron Ore: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated at a high level. The global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, iron water production decreased, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased slightly. The production of five major steel products continued to rise, inventories continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand declined. Port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, iron water production will decline seasonally this week, and the inventory contradiction of steel mills has improved significantly. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market. It is recommended to wait and see when the discount is repaired [4]. - Coke: Last week, coke futures fluctuated and declined. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase, steel mills proposed a first - round price cut. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market expanded, coking profits were repaired, coke price adjustments lagged behind coking coal, coke enterprises increased prices, and coke production increased after price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, iron water production declined, steel prices fluctuated weakly, steel mill profits decreased, and there was a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills increased inventories, ports decreased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position, with the supply - demand situation of coke weakening. Coke futures were dragged down by the sharp decline of coking coal futures. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1500 - 1650 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. - Coking Coal: Last week, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot market accelerated its decline, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, some coal mines stopped production, the import of Mongolian coal increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, steel mills increased losses and maintenance, iron water production declined, coke production increased slightly after the recovery of coking profits, and the restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, ports, and coke enterprises reduced inventories, while coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1000 - 1120 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 17 yuan/ton to 3110 yuan/ton [2]. - Hot - rolled Coils: Spot prices in East and South China remained unchanged or increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts all rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Cost: The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton, the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar remained unchanged at 3231 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3171 yuan/ton [2]. - Profit: The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, the profit of South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and other regional profits remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average iron water production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.2 tons to 10.4 tons, an increase of 12.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 tons to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse Receipt Cost: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Carajás fines and Brazilian blended fines [4]. - 01 Contract Basis: The basis of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 38.1% for Carajás fines [4]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 24.5, a decrease of 2.0%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 50.5, an increase of 1.9%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 26.0, a decrease of 1.9% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Brazilian blended fines. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 20.0 days [4]. Coke Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.9%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, a decrease of 2.94% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.0 tons to - 3.6 tons, an increase of 55.34% [7]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1067 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1152 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.8% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal production increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, an increase of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.9 tons to 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 tons to 801.3 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 294.5 tons, an increase of 1.0% [7].