大越期货生猪期货早报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market has entered the off - season after the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays. Recently, the spread of swine fever has increased short - term hog slaughter, suppressing pig prices. It is expected that both hog and pork supply will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment is expected to improve, but consumer willingness has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. However, future demand for cured pork will support price bottoms. Overall, the market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand, with pig prices expected to decline in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis shows that the national average spot price is 11,130 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 335 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. - As of September 30, the hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [8]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [8]. - It is expected that the supply and demand of hogs will start to decrease in the near future. Pig prices are expected to bottom out and return to a volatile pattern this week. The LH2601 contract of hogs will fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,700 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the report 3.2 Recent News - The domestic hog consumption market has been affected by the off - season. Recently, swine fever has spread, leading to an increase in hog slaughter and supply. Spot prices are weak in the short - term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term [10]. - After the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays, pork demand has weakened in the short - term. Affected by the increase in supply, spot hog prices are fluctuating weakly. The room for further decline may be limited, and prices may bottom out and rebound [10]. - The losses in domestic hog farming have recently expanded, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large hogs has weakened in the short - term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of hog futures and spot prices [10]. - Spot hog prices are fluctuating downward. Futures are weak in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The domestic hog supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic hog spot prices may be limited [11]. - Bearish Factors: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic hog inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on hog slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures and Spot Prices: The report provides the prices of hog futures (including the main 2601 and far - month 2603 contracts), hog futures warrants, and the spot prices of outer - ternary hogs in different regions from November 21 to November 28 [12]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report