大越期货原油周报-20251201

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated with an initial decline followed by a rise. NYMEX's front - month light crude oil futures closed at $58.48 per barrel, up 0.86% for the week; Brent crude oil's front - month futures closed at $62.32 per barrel, up 0.69% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC front - month contract closed at 455.9 yuan per barrel, up 1.90% for the week. Geopolitical concerns first weakened and then rebounded, and the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, which supported oil prices. Overall, oil prices are still subject to short - term shocks from macro events, and the volatile market will continue. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 440 - 465, and long - term investors should wait and see [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Review - Price Movement: NYMEX's front - month light crude oil futures closed at $58.48 per barrel, up 0.86% for the week; Brent crude oil's front - month futures closed at $62.32 per barrel, up 0.69% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC front - month contract closed at 455.9 yuan per barrel, up 1.90% for the week [3] - Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical concerns first weakened as the US and Ukraine made progress in peace talks, but then rebounded as Russia remained cautious about the peace agreement. The new "19 - point" peace plan was proposed, and its future depends on multiple variables [3][4] - Supply Factors: Three OPEC+ sources said the alliance may keep production unchanged at its December meeting and focus on discussing member countries' production capacity. Eight OPEC+ members have gradually increased production in 2025 and are expected to maintain the policy of suspending production increases in the first quarter of 2026 [3] - Economic Factors: The possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, which supported oil prices. Market bets on a December rate cut increased, and several Fed officials supported a rate cut, but there are also concerns about inflation risks within the Fed [3][4] - Funding Factors: In the week of November 25, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 57,430 to 120,934 contracts; as of the week of October 14, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased by 13,318 contracts to 60,991 contracts [3] 2. Related News - Fed Interest Rate: Market expectations for a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December rose to about 87%. Multiple Fed officials supported a rate cut, but there are internal differences regarding inflation risks. The December FOMC meeting time is a focus due to the delay of employment reports [4] - Ukraine Peace Talks: The US and Ukraine proposed a new "19 - point" peace plan. Russia said it was too early to discuss the final version, and only when Ukraine withdraws from the claimed Russian territory can a cease - fire be announced [4] 3. Outlook - Geopolitical concerns may further weaken as Trump discussed a possible summit with Venezuelan leader Maduro. OPEC+ may keep the oil output level unchanged at its Sunday meeting and reach an agreement on the mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity, slightly supporting oil prices. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with short - term trading recommended in the range of 440 - 465 and long - term waiting and seeing [5] 4. Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The price changes of various crude oil varieties in the week are as follows: UK Brent Dtd rose 0.77%, WTI fell 1.38%, Oman crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region fell 1.34%, China's Shengli crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region fell 2.39%, Dubai crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region fell 1.21%, and OPEC's basket of crude oil prices fell 1.29% [7] - EIA Inventory: From September 19 to November 21, EIA inventories showed fluctuations. For example, on September 19, it was 41,475.4 barrels, a decrease of 60,700 barrels compared with the previous period; on November 21, it was 42,692.9 barrels, an increase of 277,400 barrels compared with the previous period [9] - Cushing Inventory: From September 19 to November 21, Cushing inventories also fluctuated. For example, on September 19, it was 2,373,800 barrels, an increase of 17,700 barrels compared with the previous period; on November 21, it was 2,175,300 barrels, a decrease of 6,800 barrels compared with the previous period [10] 5. Position Data - WTI Net Long Position: As shown by CFTC data from July 22 to September 23, WTI net long positions have changed. For example, on July 22, it was 153,331 contracts, a decrease of 9,096 contracts compared with the previous period; on September 23, it was 102,958 contracts, an increase of 4,249 contracts compared with the previous period [16] - Brent Net Long Position: As shown by ICE data from August 19 to October 21, Brent net long positions have changed. For example, on August 19, it was 182,695 contracts, a decrease of 23,852 contracts compared with the previous period; on October 21, it was 52,521 contracts, a decrease of 57,085 contracts compared with the previous period [18]