永安期货集运早报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2512 contract is approaching the delivery logic, with P1 around 1,550 - 1,600 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin positions, expecting a stable - to - rising trend. [3][11] - The EC2602 contract is undervalued. The core of going long is to wait for the signal of cargo capacity explosion. The cargo volume on the European route is strong this year. Considering factors such as the late Chinese New Year, the incomplete start of pre - holiday concentrated shipments, and the positive impact of December price cuts on January price increase implementation, if the peak season is gradually realized, EC2602 may have more upside potential. [3][11] - For the EC2604 contract, a short - selling approach on rallies is still recommended. [3][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1,631.1, with a change of 1.13% and 6.07% (unclear). The basis was 8.3, the trading volume was 1,737, the open interest was 4,501, and the open interest change was - 7/31 - 2,857. [2][10] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1,471.9, the basis was 167.5, the trading volume was 41,467, and the open interest was 40,111. [2][10] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,072.2, with a change of 1.67%. The basis was 567.2, the trading volume was 7,369, the open interest was 18,743, and the open interest change was 42. [2][10] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1,215.2, with a change of 2.11%. The basis was 424.2, the trading volume was 519, and the open interest was 2,254. [2][10] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1,339.0, with a change of 2.15%. The basis was 300.4, the trading volume was 257, the open interest was 1,630, and the open interest change was - 20. [2][10] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1,021.0, with a change of 0.87%. The basis was 618.4, the trading volume was 954, the open interest was 3,975, and the open interest change was 2,715. [2][10] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's spread was 558.9, with a daily change of 0.6 and a weekly change of - 53.8. [2][10] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 159.2, with a daily change of - 66.0 and a weekly change of 14.5. [2][10] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 399.7, with a daily change of 66.6 and a weekly change of - 68.3. [2][10] Spot Market Indicators (European Route) - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of November 24, 2025, it was 1,639.37 points, with a current - period increase of 20.75% and a previous - period decrease of 9.78%. [2][10] - SCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,404 dollars/TEU, with a current - period increase of 2.71% and a previous - period decrease of 3.55%. [2][10] - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,449.34 points, with a current - period increase of 1.14% and a previous - period increase of 2.09%. [2][10] - NCFI: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,024.64 points, with a current - period increase of 7.671% and a previous - period decrease of 2.83%. [2][10] Recent European Route Spot Situation - The average price in Week 49 was 2,360 dollars, equivalent to 1,650 points on the futures market. The price increase in early December failed. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2,200 dollars, setting the tone. OA was at 2,300 - 2,400 dollars, PA was at 2,100 - 2,200 dollars, with a current central price of 2,270 dollars, equivalent to 1,580 points on the futures market. MSC plans to raise the price of second - half of December cabin positions to 3,500 dollars, and ONE to 2,800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin positions in early December. [4][12] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the second phase of the agreement. [5][13] - On November 29, Hezbollah in Lebanon stated that it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on its senior commander. [5][13]