Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. If the raw material output is smooth, the rubber price is expected to weaken; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to trade in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased from 14,800 to 15,000 yuan/ton, with a rise of 200 yuan and a growth rate of 1.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased from 14,600 to 14,650 yuan/ton, with a rise of 50 yuan and a growth rate of 0.34% [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of natural rubber futures increased from - 50 to - 35 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 30.00% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In September, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 5.45% to 451.50 thousand tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 1.71% to 195.00 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 8.60 thousand tons [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The geopolitical situation still supports oil prices in the short term, but under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - Crude Oil Price and Spread: On November 28, Brent crude oil was at 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.49 US dollars or 0.78% from the previous day; WTI crude oil was at 58.55 US dollars/barrel; SC crude oil was at 450.90 yuan/barrel, up 5.80 yuan or 1.30% [3]. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: ICE Gasoil was at 669.75 US dollars/ton on November 28, up 5.75 US dollars or 0.87% from the previous day [3]. - Refined Oil Crack Spread: The European gasoline crack spread decreased by 12.98% to 17.82 US dollars/barrel on November 28 [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with limited upward and downward space. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term but may face pressure later, especially the 01 contract in December [5]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Price and Spread: The North China glass quotation increased from 1070 to 1090 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.87% [5]. - Soda Ash - related Price and Spread: The North China soda ash quotation remained at 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply: Soda ash production decreased due to some device overhauls, with the production rate dropping by 3.14% to 80.08% and the weekly output decreasing by 3.15% to 69.81 million tons [5]. - Inventory: The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.49% to 6236.20 ten - thousand weight boxes, and the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 3.47% to 158.74 million tons [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The increase in inland methanol supply is offset by weak coal - and gas - based profits. The reduction in port imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the port de - stocking expectation, providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary by Directory - Methanol Price and Spread: The MA2601 closing price increased from 2114 to 2135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99% [6]. - Methanol Inventory: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19% to 37.3712 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [6]. - Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.67% to 75.74%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.78% to 82.31% [6]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Both polypropylene and polyethylene present a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary by Directory - Polyolefin Price and Spread: The L2601 closing price increased from 6789 to 6857 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.34% [9]. - Polyolefin Inventory: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 9.80% to 45.4 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 8.00% to 54.6 million tons [9]. - Polyolefin Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.17% to 84.5%, and the PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93% to 46.6% [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply - demand of styrene remains in a tight balance, but its upward driving force is insufficient [11]. Summary by Directory - Upstream Price and Spread: The CFR China pure benzene price increased from 665 to 669 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 0.6% [11]. - Styrene - related Price and Spread: The styrene East China spot price increased from 6560 to 6630 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.1% [11]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 11.6% to 16.40 million tons, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 76.6% [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PX is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. PTA is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in December. Short - fiber has limited price - driving force, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [12]. Summary by Directory - Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow: The POY150/48 price decreased from 6490 to 6465 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan or 0.4% [12]. - PX - related Price and Spread: The CFR China PX price increased from 826 to 836 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 1.2% [12]. - PTA - related Price and Spread: The PTA East China spot price increased from 4610 to 4635 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.5% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Caustic soda prices are expected to run weakly, and PVC is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with weak demand and an oversupply pattern [13]. Summary by Directory - PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price increased from 4450 to 4470 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4% [13]. - Supply: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6% to 90.3%, and the PVC overall operating rate increased by 1.0% to 77.5% [13]. - Demand: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 1.0% to 80.4% [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View No relevant information provided. Summary by Directory - LPG Price and Spread: The main PG2512 contract price increased from 4259 to 4412 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.59% [14]. - LPG Inventory: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 7.70% to 23.7% [14]. - LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.26% to 74.74%, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased by 0.26% to 69.8% [14].
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20251201
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-01 05:50