宏观经济周报-20251201

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined, indicating a phase of stable adjustment after previous expansion momentum[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index showed a minor drop but remains close to the expansion zone, reflecting resilient demand[1] - The Investment Confidence Index remained stable with slight contraction, particularly in infrastructure investment, which is expected to rebound under continued policy support[1] Industrial Profit Trends - From January to October 2025, profits of large industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of recovery[2] - Manufacturing profits grew by 7.7%, while public utilities saw a 9.5% increase, indicating structural optimization in industrial profits[2] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors were the main profit growth drivers, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[2] Global Economic Context - In the U.S., September retail sales rose by only 0.2%, significantly below the expected 0.4%, indicating weakening consumer momentum[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3% month-on-month, driven primarily by rising energy prices, with core PPI rising only 0.1%[6] - The U.S. economy faces a dual challenge of weakening employment and inflation pressures, with hiring intentions declining in half of the regions surveyed[7]