瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 770 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 122,891 lots, a decrease of 4,444 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 33,268 lots, a decrease of 6,343 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 254,760 tons, a decrease of 690 tons [2] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,782 tons, an increase of 987 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 10,254 tons, a decrease of 1,146 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 32,722 tons, a decrease of 587 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 119,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 119,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 520 yuan/ton [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 196.77 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.29 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,487.33 tons, a decrease of 12.43 tons [2] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 597,600 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly due to the high base effect [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that interest rates are at a reasonable level, indicating satisfaction with the recent situation [2] - Germany's CPI in November was 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the preliminary value of the harmonized CPI year - on - year unexpectedly rose to 2.6%, reaching a nine - month high [2] 3.7 Technical and Market Conditions - In terms of technology, positions are stable, prices are adjusting, and differences between bulls and bears are increasing [2] - Domestically, nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases as needed, and spot premiums rise; overseas, LME inventory also shows an increase [2]