白糖产业周报-20251201

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 30, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SR2501 contract will enter the delivery month in one month. Last week, the 01 - 03 spread widened. The strong performance of the 01 contract is due to the fact that the price of new sugar is higher than that of old sugar and much higher than the futures price, leading to the need for futures - spot convergence. With the recent recovery in the overseas market, it is possible for the futures price to converge through a small rebound. [5] - Both the SR2603 and SR2605 contracts currently show a contango structure, mainly because the 25/26 sugar season is expected to have an increase in production. However, the contango is not significant. Last week, the spread between near - term and far - term contracts narrowed due to the decline in the near - term contract. In the long run, the 03 contract will face pressure during the off - season of consumption and the peak inventory period, and the 05 contract will be affected by imported sugar. Therefore, the contango pattern is difficult to break, and the spread may widen in the future. [5] Market Information Domestic Market - Spot quotes: The price at the Liuzhou middleman's platform is 5610 - 5620 yuan/ton, and the price quoted by Kunming middlemen is 5400 - 5510 yuan/ton. [3] - In October, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 210,000 tons year - on - year. [3] International Market - ISO adjusted the global surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 162,500 tons, considering higher production expectations in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. [4] - In the first three weeks of November, Brazil exported 2.5637 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 183,100 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. [4] - ISMA estimates that India's sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.35 million tons (including ethanol), with 3.4 million tons of sugar used for ethanol production. [4] - India's NFCSF has urged the government to raise the minimum domestic sugar sales price to 41 rupees per kilogram, adjust the ethanol price, and approve more sugarcane for ethanol production. [4] - The market expects that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will increase by 14.9% to 1.885 million tons, and sugar production will increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 107,500 tons. [4] - India has opened an export quota of 1.5 million tons, lower than the market's expectation of 2 million tons. Currently, the possibility of exports is low because the domestic sugar price in India is higher than the overseas price. [4] - As of November 19, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, have started crushing, processing 1.1277 million tons of sugarcane and producing 86,810 quintals of sugar, with an average sugar recovery rate of 7.4%. In the same period last year, only 91 mills were operating, processing 135,000 tons of sugarcane with a sugar recovery rate of 4.2%. [4] Price and Spread Data Futures Weekly Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price on December 1, 2025 | Change Rate | Spread | Closing Price on December 1, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR01 | 5400 | 0% | SR01 - 05 | 73 | 0 | | SR03 | 5360 | 0% | SR05 - 09 | - 16 | 0 | | SR05 | 5327 | 0% | SR09 - 01 | - 57 | 0 | | SR07 | 5337 | 0% | SR01 - 03 | 40 | 0 | | SR09 | 5343 | 0% | SR03 - 05 | 33 | 0 | | SR11 | 5339 | 0% | SR05 - 07 | - 10 | 0 | | SB | 15.21 | 0% | SR07 - 09 | - 6 | 0 | | W | 435.6 | 0% | SR09 - 11 | 4 | 0 | | | | | SR11 - 01 | - 61 | 0 | [6] Spot Weekly Price and Spread | Location | Price on November 28, 2025 | Change | Spread | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning | 5450 | - 30 | Nanning - Liuzhou | 10 | 0 | | Liuzhou | 5440 | - 30 | Nanning - Kunming | 10 | 0 | | Kunming | 5440 | - 30 | Nanning - Zhanjiang | 50 | - 30 | | Zhanjiang | 5400 | 0 | Nanning - Rizhao | - 350 | 0 | | Rizhao | 5800 | - 30 | Nanning - Urumqi | 200 | - 30 | | Urumqi | 5250 | 0 | Kunming - Rizhao | - 360 | 0 | [7] Weekly Basis | Basis | Basis on December 1, 2025 | Change | Basis | Basis on December 1, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning - SR01 | 70 | - 10 | Kunming - SR01 | 55 | - 75 | | Nanning - SR03 | 110 | 6 | Kunming - SR03 | 95 | - 59 | | Nanning - SR05 | 143 | 12 | Kunming - SR05 | 128 | - 53 | | Nanning - SR07 | 133 | 11 | Kunming - SR07 | 118 | - 54 | | Nanning - SR09 | 127 | 13 | Kunming - SR09 | 112 | - 52 | | Nanning - SR11 | 131 | 12 | Kunming - SR11 | 116 | - 53 | [8][10] Weekly Import Price Change | Import Source | In - quota Price on November 26, 2025 | Weekly Change | Out - of - quota Price | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brazil | 4157 | 125 | 5271 | 164 | | Rizhao - Brazil | 1643 | - 90 | 529 | - 109 | | Liuzhou - Brazil | 1248 | - 129 | 134 | - 168 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Brazil | 1222 | - 127 | 108 | - 166 | | Thailand | 4206 | 86 | 5334 | 112 | | Rizhao - Thailand | 1594 | - 90 | 466 | - 109 | | Liuzhou - Thailand | 1199 | - 90 | 71 | - 116 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Thailand | 1173 | - 88 | 45 | - 114 | [11]