瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20251201

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ2603 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 5455 yuan/ton last week. The operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene decreased, and domestic pure benzene production declined. The operating rates of downstream styrene and caprolactam decreased, while those of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increased. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased slightly. The inventory at East China ports continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. Petroleum benzene profit was slightly repaired but remained at a low - valuation level due to weak supply and demand. This week, a domestic disproportionation unit is under maintenance, but the increase in imported resources is expected to lead to a slight rise in domestic petroleum benzene supply. In December, the impact of domestic petroleum benzene maintenance changes little compared to November. The commissioning and restart of downstream styrene units, along with the expected increase in the loads of phenol and caprolactam, may drive a slight increase in pure benzene demand, and the wide - balance state of spot supply and demand is expected to ease. In terms of cost, the actual supply of international oil prices is stronger than demand, and there are still uncertainties in geopolitical situations such as Russia - Ukraine and US - Venezuela. The market expects an increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, leading to a long - short game in international oil prices. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with a daily range expected to be around 5400 - 5530 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5455 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the settlement price was 5452 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 207 hands, and the open interest was 24075 hands, an increase of 649 hands. The mainstream prices in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 5355 yuan/ton, 5300 yuan/ton, 5270 yuan/ton, and 5265 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter two increasing by 20 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5375 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North China market, it was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 657 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China was 668.82 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.54 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 571.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 US dollars/ton; the spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 64.83 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.28 US dollars/barrel [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 76.59%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the weekly output was 44.62 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 16.4 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons. The production cost of pure benzene was 5246.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.6 yuan/ton; the production profit was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 86.68%, a decrease of 1.54 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 81.16%, an increase of 2.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 77.19%, an increase of 1.51 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 59.4%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, SH2601 fell 1.03% to close at 2212 yuan/ton. From November 22nd to 28th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 0.14% to 72.99%. As of December 1st, the inventory of pure benzene in East China was 22.4 tons, an increase of 36.59% from the previous period. From November 21st to 27th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 78 yuan/ton [2].