瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251201

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2601 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6,549 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of the shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's 450,000 - ton plant expanded, and Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton plant had a short - term shutdown. Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased month - on - month. Downstream operating rates varied, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased slightly. Factory and port inventory changes were inconsistent, and the de - stocking pace slowed down. Non - integrated process losses decreased, and integrated process profitability deepened. Recently, Dongming's 200,000 - ton new plant was put into operation, and Lianyungang Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton plant will restart this week. Domestic styrene supply is expected to recover. In December, the impact of styrene maintenance will weaken marginally, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. In the short term, the downstream demand load will be slightly adjusted, with little overall change. The tight balance between supply and demand of styrene may gradually turn into a loose balance, and price support will weaken. In terms of cost, the actual supply of international oil prices continues to be stronger than demand. There are still uncertainties in the geopolitical situations of Russia - Ukraine and the US - Venezuela. The market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December to increase, and there is a long - short game in international oil prices. In the short term, EB2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 6,460 and the resistance around 6,620 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active contract for styrene was 6,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan; the futures trading volume was 270,098, a decrease of 20,251; the long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 316,499 hands, a decrease of 21,219 hands; the 1 - month contract closing price was 6,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan; the futures open interest was 308,914 hands, a decrease of 6,808 hands; the net long - position volume of the top 20 holders was - 46,463 hands, an increase of 4,741 hands; the short - position volume of the top 20 holders was 362,962 hands, a decrease of 25,960 hands; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 hands, a decrease of 100 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,656 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB Korea intermediate price was 811 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 821 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the mainstream price in the Northeast region was 6,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the South China region was 6,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the mainstream price in the North China region was 6,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the East China region was 6,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 741 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 721 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price of ethylene was 641.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 658 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.33 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf's FOB was 273 cents/gallon, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in Rotterdam's FOB was 714 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 190,430 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 164,200 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 94,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 71.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 57.6%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 37%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 75.99%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points [2] Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 334,700 tons, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points month - on - month. From November 21st to 28th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene was 268,800 tons, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month. As of November 27th, the styrene plant inventory was 190,400 tons, an increase of 1.24% from the previous week. As of December 1st, the styrene inventory in the East China port was 160,600 tons, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous week; the inventory in the South China port was 9,500 tons, a decrease of 39.1% from the previous week. As of November 26th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 159 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 208.76 yuan/ton [2]