铂钯金期货日报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Driven by interest - rate cut news, the precious - metal market is generally strong, leading to significant price increases for platinum and palladium futures. The platinum 2606 main contract rose 3.98% to 451.6 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 2.44% to 382.35 yuan/gram [2]. - For platinum, in 2025, the global market is expected to have a supply gap of about 692,000 ounces. With the continuous consumption of above - ground inventory, the physical spot market is in a long - term tight situation. In the short term, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward; in the medium - to - long term, they may maintain a strong trend, but there may be some profit - taking sentiment [2]. - For palladium, in the medium - to - short term, supply is affected by South Africa's power supply and Russia's geopolitical situation. Demand is under downward pressure due to the "platinum replacing palladium" trend. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the warm trading sentiment in precious metals may support prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 451.60, up 9.10; palladium main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 382.35 [2]. - Platinum main - contract position (daily, lots): 10,624.00, up 2,576.00; palladium main - contract position (daily, lots): 3,028.00, up 478.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 438.00, up 24.00; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 384.50, up 22.00 [2]. - Platinum main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): 6.80, up; palladium main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 13.60, up 12.90 [2]. - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9,966.00, down 243.00; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3,003.00, down 342.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar index: 99.44, down 0.12; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 0.02, up [2]. - VIX volatility index: 16.35, down 0.86 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Market expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December with a probability of about 85% - 86% according to the market pricing, and 87.4% according to CME's "FedWatch". The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 12.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.5%, the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is 9.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.2% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - November 11 US ISM manufacturing PMI on December 1 [2]. - US JOLTS job - opening data on December 2 [2]. - US ADP private - sector employment data on December 3 [2]. - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2].