瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251201

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term inventory increase of production and trading companies in the synthetic rubber industry is expected to be limited, and the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,600 in the short term. The recovery of overall capacity utilization will be restricted by some enterprises' maintenance plans at the beginning of the week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,310 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the main contract position is 48,804, down 3,217. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 0, up 5. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 3,410 tons, up 300 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions range from 10,400 - 10,650 yuan/ton, and most have increased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The price of Brent crude oil is 63.2 dollars/barrel, down 0.14 dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 571.5 dollars/ton, up 5.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 740 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of WTI crude oil is 58.55 dollars/barrel, down 0.52 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 7,225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 70.97%, down 1.56 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 47,300 tons, up 7,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.99%, up 0.73 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 70.19%, down 2.45 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 434 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.24 million tons, up 0.09 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,900 tons, up 270 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,540 tons, up 660 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.23 days, down 0.63 days. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month - on - month and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points month - on - month and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year [2] Industry News - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, up 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 26, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95% [2]