瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar market has seen a situation where Guangxi's sugar cane crushing is relatively delayed while Yunnan's sugar crushing progress is faster than the same period last year. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led to a decline in Yunnan sugar prices, but processed sugar and beet sugar prices are relatively stable, providing support to Guangxi sugar prices. With the previous negative factors in the market basically digested and the pessimistic sentiment easing, it is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5405 yuan/ton, with a change of 5; the main contract's open interest is 350,573 lots, a decrease of 10,944 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 0, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -60,675 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 183 pieces, with no change [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4172 yuan/ton, an increase of 15; that of Thai sugar within the quota is 4218 yuan/ton, an increase of 12. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5289 yuan/ton, an increase of 18; that of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5349 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30; in Nanning, Guangxi is 5470 yuan/ton, with no change; in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 [2] Industry Situation - The national total sugar production is 1236 tons, a decrease of 12; the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan is 1116.21 tons, an increase of 5.49; the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi is 602.29 tons, an increase of 26.66; the total Brazilian sugar export is 420.5 tons, an increase of 95.92. The import volume of sugar in the current month is 75 tons, an increase of 20; the cumulative import volume is 390 tons, an increase of 74 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 tons, an increase of 34.39; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1096.2 tons, a decrease of 495.5 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.35%, an increase of 0.28; that of at - the - money put options is 6.35%, an increase of 0.28. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.78%, a decrease of 0.07; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.81%, a decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry News - As of October 14, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 140,751 lots, an increase of 25,944 lots from the previous week. The long position was 173,974 lots, a decrease of 3,512 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 314,725 lots, an increase of 22,432 lots from the previous week. As of the week of November 26, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 56, down from 61 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.0672 million tons, a 10.1% decrease from 2.2994 million tons in the previous week [2]