Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report PVC social inventory is accumulating slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process is rising, leading to deeper losses, while the cost of the ethylene process is decreasing, with a slight profit recovery. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to continue rising, and the high - operation state is likely to be maintained in December. With the temperature dropping, the downstream PVC开工率 is expected to decline seasonally. Although the overseas demand exists after the termination of India's BIS and anti - dumping tax policies on imported PVC, it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. The PVC market has rebounded recently due to cost - side benefits and short - covering, but the rebound space is limited under the background of high PVC operation and weak demand. Technically, the daily K - line of V2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 4600 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 4553 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 916,061 lots, with a daily increase of 192,901 lots; the open interest is 1,071,518 lots, with a daily decrease of 47,059 lots. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,065,765 lots, with a daily increase of 926 lots; the short position is 1,209,806 lots, with a daily increase of 246 lots; the net long position is - 144,041 lots, with a daily increase of 680 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4560 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4516.92 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 38.46 yuan/ton. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4625 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4523.12 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 21.25 yuan/ton. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 640 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 620 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 63 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.67 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it is 2534 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, with no change. - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 438 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 38 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 498 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 40 US dollars/ton. - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 173 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 178 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.22%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 83.61%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.3%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.38%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. - The total social inventory of PVC is 52.79 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.12 million tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 48.13 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.08 million tons; in the South China region, it is 4.66 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.04 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.43, with a monthly decrease of 0.35. - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 49,061.39 million square meters, with a monthly increase of 3662.39 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 652,939.03 million square meters, with a monthly increase of 4359.03 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 3898.297 billion yuan, with a monthly increase of 311.91 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.91%, with a daily decrease of 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.38%, with a daily increase of 0.17%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for PVC is 15.97%, with a daily increase of 1.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.97%, with a daily increase of 1.66% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.22%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. - From November 22nd to 28th, the downstream PVC开工率 increased by 0.42% week - on - week to 49.61%. Among them, the pipe开工率 decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 38.8%, and the profile开工率 increased by 0.21% week - on - week to 36.09%. - As of November 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 104.28 million tons. - From November 22nd to 28th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5131 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5187 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 881 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process increased to - 465 yuan/ton [2].
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251201
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-01 10:40