Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories arrange production flexibly and stock up cautiously, resulting in a large increase in the inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance last week, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate; full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate increased. This week, as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume normal production, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to increase, but the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises at the beginning of the month will limit the increase range. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15100 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15250 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12170 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3080 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 66940 lots, down 12655 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 45211 lots, down 1736 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31817 lots, down 2468 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8972 lots, up 1622 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 41400 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 50702 tons, down 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1845 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1835 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14630 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10400 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13061 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 891 yuan/ton, up 178 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 148.2 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 27 US dollars/ton, up 5.2 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.61 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.64 million tons, down 6.11 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.19%, down 0.86 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.23 days, down 0.63 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.05%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.28%, up 0.12 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.98%, up 1.69 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.99%, up 1.69 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons, an increase of 2.71%. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%; the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, an increase of 3.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points. - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251201
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-01 11:22