Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: December 2, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with Iranian plants starting to shut down, the port and inland markets rebounded in resonance, the basis strengthened slightly, unloading was slow, the port has been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end up with high inventory, so it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [3]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - For PP, the upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, the import profit is around - 700, and the export situation has been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of middle and upstream enterprises are continuously accumulating. The summer maintenance of Northwest plants is seasonal, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/25 | 801 | 2057 | 2030 | 2378 | 2412 | 2385 | 2588 | 240 | 317 | - 16 | - 15 | - | | 2025/11/26 | 801 | 2088 | 2048 | 2408 | 2415 | 2390 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | - 16 | - 5 | - | | 2025/11/27 | 801 | 2100 | 2073 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2590 | 247 | 317 | - 34 | - 11 | - | | 2025/11/28 | 801 | 2110 | 2080 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2593 | 247 | 317 | - 19 | - 20 | - | | 2025/12/01 | 801 | 2115 | 2085 | 2425 | 2410 | 2390 | 2595 | - | - | - | - 15 | - | |日度变化| 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | - | 5 | - | [2] Polyethylene | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/25 | 730 | 6740 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 785 | 35 | 6762 | - 50 | 69 | 11701 | | 2025/11/26 | 730 | 6700 | 6975 | 8850 | 7050 | 795 | 785 | 85 | 6707 | - 30 | 66 | 11701 | | 2025/11/27 | 730 | 6680 | 6925 | 8800 | 7000 | 795 | 785 | 32 | 6699 | - 20 | 65 | 11701 | | 2025/11/28 | 740 | 6720 | 6950 | 8800 | 7000 | 795 | 785 | 62 | 6789 | - 30 | 65 | 11546 | | 2025/12/01 | - | 6730 | 6975 | 8725 | 7000 | - | - | - | 6803 | - 50 | - | 11481 | |日度变化| - | 10 | 25 | - 75 | 0 | - | - | - | 14 | - 20 | - | - 65 | [3] PP | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/25 | 5920 | 695 | 6270 | 6248 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6317 | - 100 | 69 | 15668 | | 2025/11/26 | 6050 | 695 | 6250 | 6213 | 6150 | 6744 | 760 | 830 | - 2 | 6265 | - 70 | 66 | 15518 | | 2025/11/27 | 6050 | 695 | 6205 | 6210 | 6150 | 6728 | 760 | 830 | - 1 | 6295 | - 70 | 65 | 15518 | | 2025/11/28 | 6000 | 695 | 6270 | 6220 | 6160 | 6710 | 765 | 830 | - 3 | 6409 | - 80 | 65 | 15866 | | 2025/12/01 | 5990 | 710 | 6330 | 6255 | 6190 | 6700 | - | - | - | 6397 | - 80 | - | 15801 | |日度变化| - 10 | 15 | 60 | 35 | 30 | - 10 | - | - | - | - 12 | 0 | - | - 65 | [3] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/25 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 415 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/26 | 2450 | 777 | 4520 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 336 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/27 | 2450 | 767 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 336 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/28 | 2500 | 767 | 4560 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | - | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/12/01 | 2500 | 742 | 4570 | - | - | 4180 | - | - | - | - | - 70 | |日度变化| 0 | - 25 | 10 | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [3]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251202
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-02 01:14