建信期货油脂日报-20251202

Report Overview - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Researcher Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to trade in a narrow range between 8,000 and 8,400, supported by the cost of imported soybeans, but the upside is limited due to high inventory [8]. - Rapeseed oil is policy - driven, with no new fundamental changes, and the market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. The 1 - 5 inverse spread of rapeseed oil should be held, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress of Australian seeds and the regulatory policies of rapeseed oil reserves [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Adverse weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, lower - than - expected production growth in November, and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December may improve exports, providing short - term bullish support. It is expected to trade in a range with resistance around 9,000 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - P2605 opened at 8,688, closed at 8,688 with a gain of 56 (0.65%), trading volume of 121,026, and open interest of 24,666 with an increase of 2,411 [7]. - P2601 opened at 8,638, closed at 8,652 with a gain of 64 (0.75%), trading volume of 367,522, and open interest of 312,424 with a decrease of 18,937 [7]. - Y2605 opened at 8,020, closed at 8,086 with a gain of 64 (0.80%), trading volume of 135,151, and open interest of 447,922 with an increase of 31,341 [7]. - Y2601 opened at 8,238, closed at 8,288 with a gain of 50 (0.61%), trading volume of 202,373, and open interest of 333,076 with a decrease of 14,314 [7]. - O1605 opened at 9,515, closed at 9,484 with a loss of 38 (- 0.40%), trading volume of 53,411, and open interest of 113,258 with an increase of 3,842 [7]. - Ol601 opened at 9,780, closed at 9,770 with a gain of 5 (0.05%), trading volume of 254,334, and open interest decreased by 4,352 [7]. - Base Price Information: - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: 11 - 12 months, OI2601 + 300; 12 - 1 month, OI2601 + 260. East China first - grade rapeseed oil: 11 - 12 months, OI2601 + 430 [7]. - East China first - grade soybean oil basis price: y2601 + 280 in December; y2601 + 290 in January; y2605 + 400 from February to May; y2605 + 250 from June to September [7]. - Palm oil quotes from Guangdong traders were slightly lowered by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry News - In Malaysia, the production of palm oil in November decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 2.09% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.36% [10]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from October [10]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [10]. - As of November 26, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 36%, higher than 24.6% a week ago but 9% behind the same period last year and 1% behind the five - year average. Farmers in Santa Fe Province have started the second - season soybean sowing, with a progress of about 2.3%, and the emergence rate of sown soybeans is 23% [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - AgroConsult expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 178.1 million tons, with the planting area increasing by 2.1% to 48.8 million hectares. Brazil's soybean exports this year will reach 109.1 million tons and are expected to grow by 2.7% to 112 million tons next year [19]. - As of the week of November 23, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 65% to 99,500 tons compared with the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to November 23, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 1.9284 million tons, a 47.8% decrease from the same period last year. As of November 23, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.3743 million tons [19].