建信期货多晶硅日报-20251202

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 02, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract was strong. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 57,705 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.26%. The trading volume was 338,696 lots, and the open interest was 142,133 lots, a net decrease of 2,626 lots [4] - Spot price: The transaction price range of n-type polycrystalline silicon re-feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Market outlook: The policy is in a vacuum period, and the fundamentals have not improved. The official and enterprise consensus is to emphasize stability. The intraday increase of polycrystalline silicon once exceeded 5%. There was no significant improvement in the policy and fundamentals. The market once again speculated on the shortage of delivery products. After reaching the upper limit of the range, there was a divergence in funds. The bulls reduced their positions and the price declined. It is recommended to be cautious and bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see, paying attention to risk control [4] Group 3: Market News - Warehouse receipts: On December 01, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 1,340 lots, an increase of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Silicon wafer prices: This week, silicon wafer prices were weak. The average transaction price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182183.75mm/130μm) was 1.17 yuan/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 6.40%. The average transaction price of N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182210mm/130μm) was 1.2 yuan/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 4.00%. The average transaction price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm/130μm) was 1.5 yuan/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 5.06% [5] - Downstream prices: This week, downstream battery prices decreased slightly compared with last week, while component prices remained stable. The mainstream battery price was 0.27 - 0.28 yuan/W, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W from last week. The mainstream component price was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, unchanged from last week [5] - Industry statement: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it is working with industry enterprises, and relevant work is progressing steadily. All rumors on the Internet are false information. The association will fight against malicious short-selling of the photovoltaic industry [5] - Production forecast: The Silicon Industry Branch of the association expects the output in November to be about 118,000 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October. The output in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]