燃料油早报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore weakened on Friday after fluctuating, with the monthly spread running at a historical low and the basis weakening and then oscillating at a historical low. The HSFO cracking in Europe oscillated at a low level, and the EW weakened on Friday. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore continued to weaken this week, with the monthly spread weakening and the basis oscillating at a low level [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a significant inventory build - up, ARA's residue oil had inventory draw - down, Fujairah's residue oil had inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage oscillated at a high level, and EIA's residue oil had a slight inventory draw - down [3]. - With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at Al Zour refinery on October 21st and its subsequent shutdown, the RFCC unit of Dangote refinery is expected to enter maintenance in December, and VGO exports are expected to increase. The global heavy oil has entered the off - season with inventory build - up. The external cracking is subject to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The low - sulfur valuation is low but lacks a driving force [4]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 339.09 | 345.00 | 351.22 | 353.76 | 351.92 | -1.84 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 385.63 | 390.40 | 390.78 | 391.86 | 395.42 | 3.56 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -8.01 | -7.55 | -7.41 | -7.40 | -7.51 | -0.11 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 648.85 | 639.56 | 651.68 | 658.00 | 643.93 | -14.07 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -263.22 | -249.16 | -260.90 | -266.14 | -248.51 | 17.63 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 25.67 | 24.29 | 25.79 | 26.28 | 25.52 | -0.76 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 46.54 | 45.40 | 39.56 | 38.10 | 43.50 | 5.40 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Product | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 345.55 | 341.18 | 342.10 | 348.03 | 347.90 | -0.13 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 352.99 | 353.51 | 350.60 | 356.03 | 355.44 | -0.59 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 423.05 | 416.41 | 422.25 | 421.50 | 425.66 | 4.16 | | Singapore GO M1 | 86.59 | 84.88 | 84.90 | 86.78 | 85.73 | -1.05 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -7.95 | -7.91 | -8.58 | -8.40 | -8.14 | 0.26 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -217.72 | -211.70 | -206.01 | -220.67 | -208.74 | 11.93 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 342.03 | 336.87 | 338.12 | 343.20 | 338.62 | -4.58 | | FOB VLSFO | 422.33 | 416.44 | 422.42 | 421.10 | 425.18 | 4.08 | | 380 Basis | -3.25 | -3.45 | -4.68 | -5.37 | -7.00 | -1.63 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 5.2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 4.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | -2.5 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2491 | 2467 | 2471 | 2501 | 2495 | -6 | | FU 05 | 2538 | 2516 | 2516 | 2554 | 2552 | -2 | | FU 09 | 2516 | 2494 | 2488 | 2525 | 2527 | 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | -47 | -49 | -45 | -53 | -57 | -4 | | FU 05 - 09 | 22 | 22 | 28 | 29 | 25 | -4 | | FU 09 - 01 | 25 | 27 | 17 | 24 | 32 | 8 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3015 | 3023 | 3023 | 3027 | 3049 | 22 | | LU 05 | 3055 | 3023 | 3042 | 3047 | 3068 | 21 | | LU 09 | 3095 | 3073 | 3082 | 3085 | 3095 | 10 | | LU 01 - 05 | -40 | 0 | -19 | -20 | -19 | 1 | | LU 05 - 09 | -40 | -50 | -40 | -38 | -27 | 11 | | LU 09 - 01 | 80 | 50 | 59 | 58 | 46 | -12 | [3]