集运早报-20251202

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin space, and the prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there are expectations for the peak season. Despite high capacity, the spot price in January is not expected to be overly pessimistic due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the price cut in December benefiting the price increase in January. If the peak season is gradually realized, the 02 contract may have more upside potential. The 04 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1636.7 yesterday, up 0.34%, with a basis of - 153.1, a trading volume of 705, an open interest of 4286, and an open interest change of - 215. EC2602 closed at 1492.5, up 1.40% (0.54% might be a misprint), with a basis of - 8.8, a trading volume of 26585, an open interest of 38244, and an open interest change of - 1867 (- 129 might be a misprint). EC2604 closed at 1078.0, with a basis of 405.7, a trading volume of 4192, and an open interest of 18614. EC2606 closed at 1237.0, up 1.79%, with a basis of 246.7, a trading volume of 278, an open interest of 2170, and an open interest change of - 84. EC2608 closed at 1357.2, up 1.36%, with a basis of 126.5, a trading volume of 102, an open interest of 1622, and an open interest change of - 8. EC2610 closed at 1033.2, up 1.19%, with a basis of 450.5, a trading volume of 441, an open interest of 3888, and an open interest change of - 86 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2512 - 2504 was 558.7, down 0.2 from the previous day and down 82.0 week - on - week. EC2512 - 2602 was 144.2, down 15.0 from the previous day and down 7.6 week - on - week. EC2502 - 2604 was 414.5, up 14.8 from the previous day and down 8.4 week - on - week [2] Spot Market - The SCFI (European line) index on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, with a price of 1404 dollars/TEU. The CCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period. The NCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Spot Situation - The price increase in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the disk. YML cut the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 dollars. In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 dollars, and ONE increased the price to 2800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin space in early December [4] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the agreement. On November 29, the Lebanese Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on a senior commander [5]