建信期货集运指数日报-20251202

Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - The SCFIS index declined again this week, indicating that the price increase in late November was not fully implemented, and the price increase by shipping companies in the first half of December fell short of expectations. Maersk's aggressive pricing may suppress the price - increase space of other airlines, and there is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the market may engage in incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It is difficult to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is low. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued, and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The SCFIS index declined again this week, showing that the price increase in late November was not fully implemented, and the price increase by shipping companies in the first half of December was less than expected. For example, Maersk's opening quotes for large containers at the beginning of December were lower than the previous expected over $3000. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices. Due to the late Spring Festival, the market may have incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It is difficult to prove the overvaluation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and attention should be paid to the overvaluation of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From November 24 to 28, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. On November 28, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1403.13 points, up 0.7% from the previous period [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, but there was a split between the service and manufacturing sectors. Transport demand was stable, and spot market booking prices rebounded after continuous declines. On November 28, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1404/TEU, up 2.7% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was in sync with European routes, and market freight rates stopped falling and rebounded. On November 28, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2232/TEU, up 8.6% from the previous period [10]. - North American Routes: The number of initial unemployment claims in the US decreased, but the number of continued unemployment claims was rising, indicating a dim labor market. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates showed differentiated trends. The freight rate on the US - West route continued to decline slightly, while that on the US - East route rebounded. On November 28, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to US - West and US - East basic ports were $1632/FEU and $2428/FEU respectively, with a - 0.8% and 1.8% change from the previous period [10]. - Red Sea - Suez Canal: Maersk's statement about resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation was "refuted" later [10]. - Middle - East Situation: There were continuous military conflicts and diplomatic interactions in the Middle - East, which may have an impact on the shipping market [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS Index: On December 1, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1483.65, down 155.72 points (- 9.5%) from November 24. The SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) was 948.77, down 159.08 points (- 14.4%) from November 24 [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Futures Contract Data: The trading data of different contracts on December 1, 2025, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Various shipping - related data charts were presented, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, and shipping freight rate trends [18].