原油成品油早报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The explosion at the CPC core berth over the weekend led to an interruption in exports on the 28th and 29th, which is expected to impact short - term crude oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia, and the crude oil calendar spread is expected to rebound. However, the specific impact assessment still depends on whether the attacks continue. - The market expects OPEC to maintain the decision to suspend production increases in the first quarter. Global on - land inventories have increased, while the total on - land and water inventories have slightly decreased. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories have increased, as have gasoline and diesel inventories, while diesel inventories in Singapore and ARA have significantly decreased. - Recently, the refinery operations in Europe and the United States have been boosted, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have entered specific details. In the short term, the European diesel crack spread has declined significantly due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still provide support. It is expected that there is still room for the gasoline - diesel price spread to repair downward. - In the fourth quarter, the Brent price range is $55 - 65 per barrel. The short - term valuation deviation is not high, and a high - selling strategy is maintained. Recently, attention should be paid to whether the CPC oil export interruption continues, and the short - term Brent calendar spread is likely to strengthen [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - Crude Oil and Related Products: From November 25 to December 1, 2025, WTI increased by $0.77, BRENT increased by $0.79, and DUBAI decreased by $0.67. Other related spreads and differentials also showed corresponding changes [3]. - Domestic Products: From November 25 to December 1, 2025, OMAN increased by $0.52, domestic gasoline decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and domestic diesel decreased by 44 yuan/ton [3]. - Other Products: There were also changes in the prices and spreads of Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, and other products during this period [3]. 3.2 News - Demand for Russian Oil: The CEO of VTB Bank stated that the global demand for Russian oil is strong, and customers including India will find ways to purchase Russian oil [3]. - Shipping Incidents: A third oil tanker related to Russia exploded at sea. The "Mersin" tanker's engine room was flooded, but the hull was stable, the crew was safe, and no pollution accident occurred [3]. - OPEC+ Production Decision: Energy research company Rystad Energy analyzed that OPEC+'s decision to maintain stable oil production is likely to be affected by geopolitical uncertainties involving Russia and Venezuela. The organization is closely monitoring the peace talks to end the Ukraine conflict and the escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, both of which may pose risks to global oil supply [4]. - Pipeline Loading: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium announced that a docking point has resumed crude oil loading [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - U.S. Inventories: - API data for the week ending November 21 showed a decrease of 1.859 million barrels in crude oil inventories, an increase of 0.539 million barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of 0.753 million barrels in refined oil inventories compared to the previous period. - EIA data for the week ending November 21 showed a decrease of 560,000 barrels per day in U.S. crude oil exports, a decrease of 20,000 barrels in domestic crude oil production, an increase of 2.774 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves (a 0.65% increase), a 0.05% decrease in the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products compared to the same period last year, an increase of 498,000 barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory (a 0.12% increase), and an increase of 486,000 barrels per day in commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves compared to the previous week [5][6]. - Domestic Gasoline and Diesel Inventories: From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a 1.75% decrease, and diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a 4.25% decrease. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated [6]. - Fujairah Inventories: As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 197,000 barrels. Light distillate inventories decreased by 934,000 barrels to 6.291 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 205,000 barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 926,000 barrels to 11.165 million barrels [6].