《能源化工》日报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The fundamentals of LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with both cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream demand has a slight increase, and the winter fuel demand provides support. In ports, the reduction of imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the de - stocking expectation and supports prices [6]. Natural Rubber - The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The terminal demand improvement is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [9]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but the continuous increase in OPEC+ production and the record - high US crude oil production put pressure on the supply - demand pattern. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with Brent crude oil likely to trade between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is good, but the short - term valuation drive is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to tighten in December but be relatively loose in Q1. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in December. - Short - fiber: The short - term price support is strong, but the absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is likely to be compressed. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price is under upward pressure. - Styrene: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, but the upward drive is insufficient [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. - Glass: The short - term spot market is strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure later [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to continue the bottom - range fluctuation [17]. LPG No overall view was provided in the LPG report, but price, inventory, and开工率 data were presented [18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - Prices: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 had different price changes on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some products also changed, with the price of华东PP拉丝现货 increasing by 0.32% and华北LLDPE现货 increasing by 0.30% [2]. - Inventory: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE企业库存 decreasing by 9.80% and PP企业库存 decreasing by 8.00% [2]. - 开工率: PE装置开工率 increased by 2.17%, while PP装置开工率 decreased by 0.18% [2]. Methanol - Prices: MA2601 and MA2605 prices changed slightly on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some regions also had minor changes [5]. - Inventory: Methanol企业库存 increased by 4.19%, while甲醇港口库存 decreased by 7.83% [5]. - 开工率: Some upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with the上游 - domestic企业开工率 decreasing by 0.67% and the下游 -外采MTO装置开工率 decreasing by 0.78% [6]. Natural Rubber - Prices: The price of云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.33%, and the price of泰标混合胶 increased by 0.34% [9]. - Production and Consumption: The production of some countries in September changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45%. The domestic tire production and export in October decreased [9]. - Inventory: The保税区库存 increased by 2.74% [9]. Crude Oil - Prices: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased on December 1st compared to November 28th [11]. - Spreads: Some price spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [11]. - Refined Oil: The prices and spreads of refined oil products also had different changes [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and CFR日本石脑油 changed. Downstream polyester product prices also had various changes, with POY150/48价格 decreasing by 0.1% [14]. - Spreads: PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads changed, such as PX -原油 increasing by 1.9% [14]. - 开工率: The开工率 of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the亚洲PX开工率 decreasing by 1.3% [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, with纯苯华东现货 decreasing by 0.6% and苯乙烯华东现货 decreasing by 0.2% [15]. - Spreads: Related spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased by 1.6% [15]. - Inventory and开工率: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and开工率 changed, with纯苯江苏港口库存 increasing by 36.6% and苯乙烯开工率 decreasing by 2.4% [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, with the华东报价 of glass increasing by 0.84% and the纯碱2605 increasing by 0.68% [16]. - Supply and Demand: The开工率 and production of soda ash decreased, and the浮法日熔量 and光伏日熔量 also decreased [16]. - Inventory: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased, with the玻璃厂库 decreasing by 1.49% and the纯碱厂库 decreasing by 3.47% [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: The prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, with山东32%液碱折自价 decreasing by 2.7% [17]. - Supply and Demand: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, with the烧碱行业开工率 decreasing by 0.7% [17]. - Inventory: The inventories of PVC and caustic soda changed, with the液碱华东厂库库存 increasing by 6.0% [17]. LPG - Prices: LPG futures and spot prices changed, with the主力 PG2601 decreasing by 1.59% and the华南现货(民用气) increasing by 1.81% [18]. - Inventory: LPG inventories decreased, with theLPG炼厂库容比 decreasing by 7.70% [18]. - 开工率: The开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed, with the上游 -主营炼厂开工率 decreasing by 1.26% [18].