《黑色》日报-20251202

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel shows a strong and oscillating trend. With steel production cuts and inventory reduction, the contradictions in the steel market are not significant. Recently, steel demand has seasonally improved, and the stabilization and rise of coking coal and coke have pushed up the steel price center. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend within a range. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, attention can be paid to the arbitrage operation of going long on rebar and short on iron ore in the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in the January contract [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments increased last week, while the arrivals at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the profit margins of steel mills continued to decline, the hot metal output decreased, and steel mill maintenance increased. The steel price oscillated and rebounded, providing room for raw material price increases. Looking ahead, with the decline in hot metal this week and signs of a bottoming-out rebound in steel prices, market expectations have started to improve. With the recovery of downstream demand, there is no basis for a significant drop in hot metal output, which supports iron ore demand. Iron ore is supported by downstream restocking on one hand and has a need for basis repair on the other hand. Therefore, iron ore futures will continue to oscillate strongly, with an operating range of 750 - 820 [5][7]. Coke - The coke futures oscillated and bottomed out yesterday. After the fourth round of price increases, the first round of price cuts by steel mills has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. On the supply side, the scope of price cuts for coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, and the coking profit has been somewhat repaired. The adjustment of coke prices lags behind that of coking coal. After coke enterprises raise prices and coking coal prices fall, the coking profit is repaired, and the start - up rate increases. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, maintenance has intensified, hot metal output has declined, steel prices have oscillated weakly, and steel mill profits have decreased, with a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have increased inventory, while ports have reduced inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. Coke futures have fallen in advance, basically over - anticipating the spot price cuts. Along with the oscillating rise of building materials, it may follow coking coal to rebound in advance. For strategies, it is regarded as a unilateral oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and the coke 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended [8]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom yesterday. The spot market continued to decline, and the futures showed signs of an early rebound. On the supply side, the coal prices in the Shanxi market have a wider range of price cuts, and the auction prices of various coal types have started to fall. Some coal mines have stopped production for rectification, with a total approved production capacity of 540,000 tons, and are expected to resume production after short - term rectification. The inventory at ports has continued to rise, and the Mongolian coal price has followed the futures down. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, maintenance has intensified, hot metal output has declined, and after the coking profit has recovered, the start - up rate has slightly increased, and the restocking demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, ports, and coking enterprises have reduced inventory, while coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills have increased inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level. For strategies, it is regarded as a unilateral oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150, and the coking coal 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,220 yuan/ton, and 3,350 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 40 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3,167 yuan/ton, 3,206 yuan/ton, and 3,134 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 50 yuan/ton, 52 yuan/ton, and 24 yuan/ton [2]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,310 yuan/ton, 3,240 yuan/ton, and 3,350 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 20 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3,320 yuan/ton, 3,333 yuan/ton, and 3,327 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 32 yuan/ton, 43 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2,990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; slab price is 3,730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu is 3,243 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the cost of converter rebar in Jiangsu is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China is - 45 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China is - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of hot - rolled coils in South China is - 15 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in East China is - 82 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the profit of rebar in North China is - 125 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal output is 234.7 tons, down 1.6 tons (- 0.7%); the output of five major steel products is 855.7 tons, up 5.8 tons (0.7%). Rebar production is 206.1 tons, down 1.9 tons (- 0.9%), including an increase of 2.6 tons (9.5%) in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 4.4 tons (- 2.4%) in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 319.0 tons, up 3.0 tons (0.9%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1,400.8 tons, down 32.3 tons (- 2.3%); rebar inventory is 531.5 tons, down 21.9 tons (- 4.0%); hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 tons, down 1.2 tons (- 0.3%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 12.5 tons, up 2.0 tons (19.6%); the apparent demand for five major steel products is 888.0 tons, down 6.2 tons (- 0.7%); the apparent demand for rebar is 227.9 tons, down 2.8 tons (- 1.2%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.2 tons, down 4.2 tons (- 1.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: The warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines is 811.0 yuan/ton, up 9.9 yuan/ton (1.2%); PB fines is 845.8 yuan/ton, up 4.4 yuan/ton (0.5%); Brazilian blended fines is 857.3 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jinbuba fines is 844.6 yuan/ton, up 4.3 yuan/ton (0.5%). The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines is 10.0 yuan/ton, up 2.9 yuan/ton (40.5%); for PB fines is 44.8 yuan/ton, down 2.6 yuan/ton (- 5.5%); for Brazilian blended fines is 50.3 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan/ton (- 12.2%); for Jinbuba fines is 43.6 yuan/ton, down 2.7 yuan/ton (- 5.8%) [5]. Supply - The arrivals at 45 ports (weekly) are 2,699.3 tons, down 117.8 tons (- 4.2%); the global shipments (weekly) are 3,323.2 tons, up 44.8 tons (1.4%); the national monthly import volume is 11,130.9 tons, down 500.6 tons (- 4.3%) [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 234.7 tons, down 1.6 tons (- 0.7%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) is 330.6 tons, up 3.6 tons (1.1%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6,554.9 tons, down 49.7 tons (- 0.8%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7,199.7 tons, down 149.3 tons (- 2.0%) [5]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (weekly, compared with Monday) is 15,210.12 tons, up 108.6 tons (0.7%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8,942.5 tons, down 58.8 tons (- 0.7%); the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged [5]. Coke Prices and Spreads - For coke, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1,662 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (- 3.04%); the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1,603 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 - contract price is 1,620 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (2.9%); the 05 - contract price is 1,770 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton (2.3%) [8]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, up 1.1 tons (1.7%); the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, up 0.1 tons (0.2%) [8]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 234.7 tons, down 1.6 tons (- 0.7%) [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory is 884.7 tons, up 4.0 tons (0.5%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, up 6.5 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, up 3.2 tons (0.5%); the port inventory is 187.4 tons, down 5.6 tons (- 2.94%) [8]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated supply - demand gap of coke is - 3.6 tons, up 2.0 tons (55.34%) [8]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) is 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1,196 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.5%). The 01 - contract price is 1,093 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (2.4%); the 05 - contract price is 1,183 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton (2.7%) [8]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 856.1 tons, down 4.6 tons (- 0.5%); the clean coal output is 438.8 tons, up 4.9 tons (1.1%) [8]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly influenced by the production of coke. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, up 1.1 tons (1.7%); the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, up 0.1 tons (0.2%) [8]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 107.6 tons, up 9.6 tons (9.8%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1,010.3 tons, down 27.9 tons (- 2.7%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, up 4.2 tons (0.5%); the port inventory is 294.5 tons, up 3.0 tons (1.0%) [8].