大越期货尿素早报-20251202

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded to recent highs, and the comprehensive inventory has declined with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural demand has increased recently, while the industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The opening rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased year - on - year. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, combined with inventory de - stocking and increased agricultural storage demand, has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today. [4] - The bullish factors for urea are inventory de - stocking, while the bearish factors are domestic oversupply and continuous new highs in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate are at recent highs, inventory is decreasing, agricultural demand is rising, industrial demand is based on needs, and there is an export price difference. The overall domestic supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+20), with neutral fundamentals. [4] - Basis: The UR2601 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral. [4] - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), bearish. [4] - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. [4] - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish. [4] - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. [4] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region/Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1680 | +20 | | Shandong Spot | 1690 | +20 | | Henan Spot | 1680 | 0 | | FOB China | 2811 | - | | 01 Contract | 1675 | -2 | | UR05 | 1744 | +1 | | UR09 | 1763 | +6 | | Basis (UR2601) | 5 | +22 | | Warehouse Receipt | 7,937 | +350 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory (10,000 tons) | 146.4 | -7.3 | | UR Manufacturer Inventory (10,000 tons) | 136.4 | - | | UR Port Inventory (10,000 tons) | 10 | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2,245.5 | 1,956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4,906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]