大越期货玻璃早报-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak. With supply stabilizing at a low level, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing factories, and rising glass factory inventories, it is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1053 yuan/ton to 1036 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.61%. The spot price of Shahe Safe large - size glass remained unchanged at 1004 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 49 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton, a change of - 34.69% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1004 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [14]. Fundamentals - Cost Side No specific content on cost - side analysis other than mentioning glass production profit is provided. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [25][27]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 470,820 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming the original glass inventory [5][30]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.49% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows fluctuations in production, consumption, and net import ratios. For example, in 2024E, production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the net import ratio is - 0.90% [44]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive factors: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold - repairs have led to production losses [4]. - Negative factors: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from glass deep - processing enterprises. Also, the poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry makes traders and processors cautious, mainly focusing on consuming original glass inventory [5].