沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251202

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - 沪镍: The nickel price rebounded last week, with producers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious. Some production capacities have reduced output, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore remains firm, and ocean freight rates are stable. Indonesia's 2026 RKAB quota is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining flat and a small portion still declining. Stainless steel inventories are rising, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventories are persistently high, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The conclusion is that the Shanghai nickel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are stable, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling, with most remaining flat. The cost line is stable, and stainless steel inventories are rising. The conclusion is that the stainless steel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices: From November 28 to December 1, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose from 117,010 to 117,850, an increase of 840; the London nickel futures rose from 14,820 to 14,875, an increase of 55; the stainless steel futures main contract rose from 12,355 to 12,445, an increase of 90. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose from 119,500 to 119,750, an increase of 250; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose from 121,900 to 122,150, an increase of 250; 1 imported nickel rose from 117,550 to 117,750, an increase of 200; nickel beans rose from 119,600 to 119,800, an increase of 200. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained flat in major regions [10]. Inventory Changes - Nickel Inventory: As of November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,782 tons, with the futures inventory at 33,309 tons, an increase of 987 tons and a decrease of 476 tons respectively. On December 1, the London nickel inventory was 254,364, a decrease of 396 from November 28; the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722, a decrease of 587; the total inventory was 287,086, a decrease of 983 [12][13]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. On December 1, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 62,998, a decrease of 121 from November 28 [17][18]. Cost - related - Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices: The price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) decreased from 883 to 882 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [22]. - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,488 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel is 12,823 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,272 yuan [24]. - Nickel Import Cost: The calculated import price is 119,116 yuan per ton [27].