大越期货油脂早报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 188, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. 3.1.2 Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,690, with a basis of 38, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,145, with a basis of 375, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely to be Bullish: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - Likely to be Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].