焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-2）-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will likely weaken in the short term. Coking coal faces challenges such as slow production growth, poor new orders, and inventory pressure, while coke has issues like increased production, inventory backlog, and weak downstream demand [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal mine production is mostly normal, but output growth is slow. Spot trading is average, speculative sentiment has declined, and new orders are poor. Some mines face inventory pressure, and prices are expected to drop further [2] - Basis: The spot price is 1190, with a basis of 97, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it [2] - Main Position: The main net short position in coking coal has decreased [2] - Expectation: Coking enterprises aim to cut raw material coal prices, and currently purchase only for immediate needs. Prices are expected to weaken in the short term [2] Coke - Fundamentals: Due to falling coal prices, coke production has increased, but shipments are blocked, and inventory has accumulated, resulting in a relatively loose supply [6] - Basis: The spot price is 1600, with a basis of 19.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it [6] - Main Position: The main net short position in coke has decreased [6] - Expectation: Although the first - round coke price cut has reduced profit margins, coke production continues to increase due to larger coal price drops. Steel mills still want to lower coke prices, and prices are expected to weaken in the short term [6] Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4] - Bearish: Slower procurement of raw material coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4] Coke - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates [8] - Bearish: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn restocking demand [8] Price Quotes - Mysteel provided the import coking coal spot price quotes on December 1 at 17:30, including prices for various types of coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports [9] - Mysteel also provided the port metallurgical coke price index on December 1 at 17:30, showing prices and price changes of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10] Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18] - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22] - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27] Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40] - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44]