大越期货沪铜早报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with supply - side disruptions, some smelting enterprises reducing production, and relaxed scrap copper policies. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 89,150 and a basis of - 130, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - Copper inventory on December 1st increased by 0 to 159,425 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 12,673 tons from the previous week to 97,930 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The main positions are net short, changing from long to short, showing a bearish trend [2]. - With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining, such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine fermenting, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - The global policy is loose while the trade war is escalating [3]. - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policies, and marginal improvement in PMI [2]. - Basis: Spot price of 89,150, basis of - 130 (discount to futures) [2]. - Inventory: December 1st inventory increase of 0 to 159,425 tons, SHFE inventory decrease of 12,673 tons to 97,930 tons [2]. - Disk: Closing price above 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average upward [2]. - Main Positions: Net short, changing from long to short [2]. - Expectation: High - level fluctuation of copper prices due to inventory and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: Not mentioned in the report. - 利空: Not mentioned in the report. - Logic: Global policy relaxation and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: SHFE copper inventory decreased by 12,673 tons from the previous week to 97,930 tons on December 1st, and the total inventory increased by 0 to 159,425 tons [2]. - Bonded - Area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - Overall Situation: Slight surplus in 2024 and tight balance in 2025 [19]. - China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance: In 2024, China's copper production was 12.06 million tons, imports were 3.73 million tons, exports were 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and there was a surplus of 0.11 million tons [21].