大越期货纯碱早报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level. The second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2] - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1176 yuan/ton. The basis is - 31 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2] - Inventory: The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33] - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2] - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Equipment problems have led to production reduction and maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3] - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly. There are still large production - launch plans this year, and the industry's output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4] 3.3 Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1177 | 1145 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1145 | - 31 | | Change Rate | - 0.08% | 0.00% | - 3.13% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - Market Price: The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] - Production Profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14] - Operating Rate and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.08%. The weekly output of soda ash is 69.82 tons, including 38.31 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19] - Production Capacity Changes: In 2023, 640 tons of new production capacity were added; in 2024, 180 tons were added; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [20] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [23] - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [26] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33] 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Production Capacity (tons) | Output (tons) | Operating Rate | Import (tons) | Export (tons) | Net Import (tons) | Apparent Supply (tons) | Total Demand (tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (tons) | Production Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [34]