Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The cotton market has a neutral fundamental situation, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory outlook, a bullish trend on the trading chart, and a bearish bias in the main positions. Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the futures are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term. The trading focus will shift from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: According to various reports, the 2025/26 cotton production is estimated to be 2540 - 2614.5 million tons, and consumption is 2500 - 2588.3 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were 222.62 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China's cotton imports in October were 9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The rural ministry estimates 2025/26 production at 660 million tons, imports at 140 million tons, consumption at 740 million tons, and ending inventory at 845 million tons [5]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14936, with a basis of 1211 (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [5]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/26 period in November to be 845 million tons, which is a bearish factor [5]. - Trading Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - Main Positions: The positions are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - Expectations: The tariff on exports to the US is reduced by 10%. Domestic new cotton picking is basically over, and downstream enterprises will replenish stocks at the end of the year. Short - term negative factors are exhausted. With cost support and the peak inventory passed, there are expectations for a recovery in later consumption. The futures will fluctuate upward in the short - term, and trading will shift from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 period, global production is estimated to be 2614.5 million tons, consumption is 2588.3 million tons, and ending inventory is 1653.2 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports [12][13]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 period, production is 2539.956 million tons, consumption is 2500.778 million tons, and ending inventory is 1622.785 million tons [15]. - China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 period, production is estimated to be 660 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 845 million tons [16]. 5. Position Data The main positions in cotton futures are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].
棉花早报-20251202
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-02 02:14