Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - December 2, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Report Date: December 2, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in a state of supply surplus according to multiple institutions, which is a bearish factor [4][9]. - The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, and the market will mainly move sideways at a low level [5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the available text. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market. For example, ISO expects a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX expects 370 million tons, and Czarnikow raises its forecast to 740 million tons. As of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and imported 11.55 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5580 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 247 yuan/ton, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - Expected Trend: The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, and the market will mainly move sideways at a low level [5][9]. 3. Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the available text. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand balance. ISO expects a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX expects 277 million tons, Czarnikow expects 740 million tons, and Covrig Analytics expects 420 million tons [34]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance: The sugar production in China is expected to increase from 996 million tons in 2024/25 to 1170 million tons in 2025/26. Consumption is expected to be around 1570 million tons, and imports are expected to be 500 million tons [36]. - Import Cost: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents/pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5086 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in international sugar prices has led to considerable import profits [41]. 5. Position Data No content related to position data is provided in the available text.
大越期货白糖早报-20251202
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-02 02:12