大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, the bid - ask was stalemate, and the futures price followed the cost side to fluctuate upward. The supply - demand pattern changed little, and attention should be paid to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. - For MEG, there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the visible inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month. It is expected that the MEG market will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, and attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the price rebounds [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Daily View - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated upward, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stalemate, mainly with traders' negotiations. The price negotiation range of the main port goods in December was around 4670 - 4740, and the mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 33 [5]. - Basis: The spot price was 4705, the 01 contract basis was - 57, and the futures price was at a premium, showing a neutral situation [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory was 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared with the previous period, which was a bullish factor [5]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish [5]. - Main positions: The net long positions increased, which was bullish [5]. - Expectation: Pay attention to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - Fundamentals: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly, and the market negotiation was fair. The intraday futures price first rose and then fell slightly, and the buying sentiment improved. The overseas price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 3897, the 01 contract basis was 15, and the futures price was at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 70.7 tons, an increase of 7.2 tons compared with the previous period, which was a bearish factor [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish [7]. - Main positions: The net short positions increased, which was bearish [6]. - Expectation: Pay attention to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA Honggang device stopped at the beginning of the week, and the 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng device is gradually shutting down. The Zhengdaokai of MEG implemented maintenance this week, and the domestic ethylene glycol load continued to decline slightly to below 71%. There is still room for the domestic load to decline [8]. - Bearish factors: There will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December for MEG, and the visible inventory will remain high [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity, output, supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024, the production capacity increased from 8062 to 8812, and the output also changed accordingly, with an increase from 591 in January to 637 in December [10]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and supply - demand gap of ethylene glycol also showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024, the total supply increased from 209 in January to 237 in December [11]. 3.6 Price - related Charts - There are multiple price - related charts, including PTA and MEG price trends, basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, which reflect the price changes of PTA, MEG, and related products from 2021 to 2025 [13][23][30]. 3.7 Inventory - related Charts - There are inventory - related charts for PTA, MEG, polyester, and polyester fibers, showing the inventory changes of these products from 2021 to 2025 [40][45]. 3.8 Production - related Charts - There are production - related charts for polyester upstream and downstream, including the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, and polyester, which reflect the production situation from 2021 to 2025 [52][56]. 3.9 Profit - related Charts - There are profit - related charts for PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, showing the profit trends of these products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][63].