大越期货PVC期货早报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Likelihood Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10] - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Likelihood factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits; negative factors are overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is strong supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [10][11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamentals: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, with overall cost weakening. This week, supply pressure increases. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [7] - Basis: On December 1st, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 13 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7] - Inventory: Factory inventory is 322,640 tons, a 2.28% increase month - on - month. Calcium carbide method factory inventory is 249,390 tons, a 3.57% increase; ethylene method factory inventory is 73,250 tons, a 1.87% decrease. Social inventory is 527,900 tons, a 0.22% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises are 5.35 days, a 0.94% increase [7] - Market Chart: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, showing a bearish trend [7] - Main Position: The main position has a net short position, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - Expectation: Production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4529 - 4577 [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including prices, spreads, inventories, downstream operating rates, and other data [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price [17] - Price and Volume Trend: Presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract [20] - Spread Analysis: Analyzes the spread trends of the PVC futures main contract, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23] 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][32][34] - Supply Trend: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production volume, maintenance volume, etc. of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [37][39] - Demand Trend: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC [41][43][47] - Inventory: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [55] - Ethylene Method: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [60]