大越期货菜粕早报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are still variables in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and there are rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations recently [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2400 - 2460 range - bound state. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and the future trend is expected to be in a shock pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, and the export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease due to Sino - Canadian trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 21 to December 1, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. - From November 21 to December 1, the rapeseed meal futures and spot prices fluctuated. The spot price was higher than the futures price, and the premium fluctuated slightly [15]. - From November 20 to December 1, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were mostly 0, with a significant decrease on November 21 [17]. - The import of rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has dropped slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions of rapeseed meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [9].