大越期货原油早报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of crude oil is mostly affected by geopolitical events. The overnight attack on the Caspian Pipeline in Central Asia and the tense situation between the US and Venezuela support the price. The SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see. The market is also waiting for the US envoy's meeting with Russian President Putin to discuss the peace plan [3]. - The short - term negative impacts are exhausted, the geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Suggestion - Fundamentals: Saudi Energy Minister believes that OPEC+'s new mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity will help stabilize the market. Trump's remarks on closing Venezuela's airspace increase geopolitical uncertainty. The US - Ukraine talks on the peace proposal and subsequent European leaders' support for Zelensky add to the geopolitical complexity, overall showing a neutral situation [3]. - Basis: On December 1, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.41 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $63.86 per barrel. The basis was 38.94 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish sign [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21. The EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21 (expected to increase by 0.055 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory decreased by 6.8 barrels in the week ending November 21 (previous value decreased by 69.8 barrels). As of December 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, showing a bullish sign [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish sign [3]. - Main Position: As of October 14, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased. As of November 25, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, showing a bearish sign [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US President Trump will hold a meeting at the White House on Monday evening to discuss the next step against Venezuela. The US government is increasing pressure on Venezuela, and there are questions about the legality of US military actions in the region [5]. - Kazakhstan protests against Ukraine's recent attacks on the facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The administrative building and mooring facilities of the consortium were attacked, causing production disruptions [5]. - After the US - Ukraine talks on the peace proposal, European leaders support Zelensky, and the US envoy will meet with Russian President Putin to discuss the peace plan [3][5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions against Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - Bearish Factors: The situation in the Middle East is easing, institutions have a consistent expectation of crude oil oversupply, and there is a possibility of US - Russia meeting and negotiation [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil increased by $0.79 (1.27%), $0.77 (1.32%), 2.50 yuan (0.55%), and $0.16 (0.25%) respectively [7]. - Spot Market: Among the spot prices of various types of crude oil, the prices of WTI crude oil increased by $0.77 (1.32%), while the prices of UK Brent Dtd, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by $0.37 (- 0.57%), $0.21 (- 0.32%), $0.15 (- 0.25%), and $0.02 (- 0.03%) respectively [9]. - Inventory Data: The API inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21. The EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of October 14, the net long positions decreased by 13,318 [3][17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of November 25, the net long positions decreased by 57,430 [3][20].