工业硅期货早报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9040 - 9250 [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 56815 - 58595 [7]. - The main logics are capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main positive factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the negative factors are the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, with no change compared to the previous week [3]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 1190 yuan/ton, a comprehensive开工率 of 74.84% (no change compared to the previous week and higher than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [3]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Basis: On December 1st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China is 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 179,600 tons, a 1.01% increase; the main port inventory is 129,000 tons, with no change [3]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20 [3]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [3]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 195,000 tons, a 4.16% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month. In November, the battery cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease. The export factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.63GW, a 36.68% decrease. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The production schedule for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,190 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: On December 1st, the price of N - type dense material is 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5355 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a historical low level [7]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20 [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase or no change compared to the previous day, with the increase ranging from 0.11% - 0.66% [14]. - Spot Price: The prices of different types of silicon in East China remain unchanged compared to the previous day [14]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory is 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase; the weekly sample enterprise inventory is 179,600 tons, a 1.01% increase; the weekly main port inventory is 129,000 tons, with no change [14]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts shows different degrees of change, with the change range from - 23.53% - 90.27% [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly production of sample enterprises remains unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate of different regions also remains unchanged [14]. - Cost and Profit: The costs and profits of different types of silicon in different regions remain unchanged [14]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase compared to the previous day, with the increase ranging from 0.97% - 2.73% [16]. - Spot Price: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain unchanged compared to the previous day [16]. - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease; the photovoltaic battery export factory weekly inventory is 7.63GW, a 36.68% decrease; the component domestic inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the component European inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.50% decrease [16]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts shows different degrees of change, with the change range from 19.92% - 29.82% [16]. - Production: The weekly silicon wafer production is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase; the photovoltaic battery monthly production is 55.61GW, a 6.18% decrease; the component monthly production is 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease [16]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly DMC production is 49,200 tons, a 3.58% increase; the daily capacity utilization rate is 74.84%, with no change [14]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of Shandong organic silicon DMC remain unchanged [44]. - Price Trend: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remain unchanged [14]. - Import and Export and Inventory: The monthly DMC export and import volumes and inventory show different trends [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Supply and Price: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots is 132,800 tons, a 9.93% increase; the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 645,000 tons, a 2.42% decrease. The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,500 yuan/ton, a 0.70% increase [14]. - Cost and Profit: The immediate profit of imported ADC12 is - 360 yuan/ton, a 26.23% decrease [14]. - Inventory and Production: The weekly inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 74,600 tons, a 0.80% decrease. The weekly production and开工率 of primary and recycled aluminum alloys show different trends [52][55]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Cost and Price: The cost and price of polysilicon show different trends [62]. - Inventory and Production: The total inventory of SMM polysilicon, monthly production, and开工率 show different trends [62]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon shows different situations from October 2024 to October 2025 [65]. - Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Photovoltaic Component Trends: The prices, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic components show different trends [68][71][74]. - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: The prices, production, and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories show different trends [77]. - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends: The cost - profit trends of different components of 210mm double - sided double - glass components show different trends [79]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: The new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and total power generation of photovoltaic grid - connected power generation show different trends [81].